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Fixing Key Issues in the Tennis Prediction Script
The tennis match prediction script has several bugs causing incorrect outputs. This guide explains the major issues and how to fix them, with steps to verify against your spreadsheet data. The goal is to align the script with the actual sheet layout, correct percentage calculations, improve probability blending, and refine the bet recommendation logic.
Fix 1: Align Script Constants with Spreadsheet Data
Issue: The script’s row and column constants do not match the actual layout of your "Match Inputs" sheet. As a result, the script reads wrong or empty cells for player stats, leading to garbage values in calculations. For example, Player A’s win probability was printed as ~51.5% even though the summary sheet shows it should be ~71.85%. Why it happens: The script uses fixed indices (e.g. ROWSASTART, ROWSBSTART, and column offsets) to pull last-5 match stats for each player. If these indices are off by even one row or column, the data mapped to each stat is incorrect. For instance, if ROWSASTART is 2 but Player A’s data actually starts at row 3, the function last5Auto("A") will read a header or empty row instead of actual stats. This misalignment poisons all downstream calculations (hold rates, return rates, Elo blend, etc.), causing the probability to default to 50/50 or other incorrect values. How to fix: Update the script’s constants to exactly match your sheet’s layout and ensure player names are in the expected cells. Verify these on the "Match Inputs" sheet:
Player A (e.g. Akira) – Name should be in cell B1 (the label above the first block of matches). The last-5 match stats for Player A should occupy the next up to 5 rows (e.g. rows 2–6 if 5 matches, or 2–5 if 4 matches). Check that:
Column C = Service Games Won (SG Won) – e.g. values like 9, 10, 10, 5 in the PDF.
Column D = Service Games Played (SG Played) – e.g. 15, 15, 11, ... in the PDF.
Columns E–Q correspond to 1st Serve Points Won, 1st Serve Points Att, 2nd Serve Points Won, 2nd Serve Points Att, 1st Return Points Won, 1st Return Points Att, 2nd Return Points Won, 2nd Return Points Att, Break Points Saved Won, Break Points Saved Att, Break Points Converted Won, Aces, Double Faults, etc. (Follow the same order as in the PDF or your sheet).
The far-right column (around column Y or Z in your sheet) contains the Match result text for each match (e.g. "Won 2–0", "Lost 2–1"). This must be in the column index that the script expects for MATCHRESULT (check the script constant, likely 25 if A=1 indexing, which corresponds to Y).
Player B (e.g. Ichikawa) – Name should be in cell B10 (i.e. directly below Player A’s block, leaving a gap if needed). B’s last-5 stats should start at row 11 and continue down (rows 11–15 for 5 matches). Ensure B’s stats use the same columns C–Q and that each match’s result is in the far-right result column.
Next, update the script’s constants to match these positions. For example, if the layout is as above:
// Column indices (1-indexed) for key fields
var COLS = {
NAME: 2, // Column B for player names
SGWON: 3, // Column C for Service Games Won
SGPLAYED: 4, // Column D for Service Games Played
SRV1WON: 5, // Column E for 1st Serve Points Won
SRV1ATT: 6, // Column F for 1st Serve Points Attempted
SRV2WON: 7, // Column G for 2nd Serve Points Won
SRV2ATT: 8, // Column H for 2nd Serve Points Attempted
RET1WON: 9, // Column I for 1st Return Points Won
RET1ATT: 10, // Column J for 1st Return Points Attemped
RET2WON: 11, // Column K for 2nd Return Points Won
RET2ATT: 12, // Column L for 2nd Return Points Attempted
BPSAVED: 13, // Column M for Break Points Saved (won)
BPSAVEATT: 14, // Column N for Break Points Saved (attempted)
BPCONV: 15, // Column O for Break Points Converted (won)
ACES: 16, // Column P for Aces
DFS: 17, // Column Q for Double Faults
MATCHRESULT: 25 // Column Y (for example) for the match result text
};

var ROWSASTART = 2; // First match row for Player A (e.g. Akira)
var ROWSBSTART = 11; // First match row for Player B (e.g. Ichikawa)
var MAXLAST5ROWS = 5; // Up to 5 matches per player
Adjust ROWSASTART or ROWSBSTART if your data doesn’t start exactly at 2 and 11. For example, if you have a header row pushing Akira’s data down by one, set ROWSASTART = 3. The key is that ROWSASTART must point to the first data row of Player A’s matches, and ROWSBSTART to the first data row of Player B’s matches. Also ensure the NAME column index matches where the player names actually are (the above assumes names are in column B). Verify after fixing: Run the last5Auto("A") and last5Auto("B") functions (or the equivalent in your script) and confirm they return sensible stats (not NaN or zero for everything). Each stat (hold %, return %, etc.) should match what you calculate manually from the last 5 matches on the sheet. If they don’t match, double-check the column indices. Once aligned, the model win probability should use the correct stats – for instance, if the summary sheet’s blended win probability for Akira is 71.85%, the script’s output should reflect a similar percentage, not 51.5%.
Fix 2: Clamp Calculated Rates to 0–100%
Issue: Some percentage stats in the output are absurdly high (e.g. “Return 483.9%” or “BPS 130.0%” as shown in the current output). This indicates the values were effectively multiplied by 100 twice or otherwise not bounded correctly. Cause: Likely a data or calculation error caused a ratio > 1.0. For example, if the script read a value like 48.39 (thinking it was 48.39% in decimal) as the fraction of return points won, it would interpret it as 4839%, then multiply by 100 again when formatting for output, yielding 483.9%. These out-of-range values suggest that either the wrong cells were read (due to misalignment in Fix 1) or a rate wasn’t properly normalized. In any case, the script did not guard against values outside the [0,1] range before converting to percentages. How to fix: Clamp all percentage rates to a valid range (0 to 1) right after calculating them from raw stats. This ensures that even if there is a mis-read or a division issue, the printed percentage will never exceed 100% (or go below 0%). Implement a clamp function and apply it to each rate in the last5Auto function (or wherever the stats are computed):
function clampRate01(x) {
return Number.isFinite(x) ? Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x)) : x;
}

// ... after computing the rates from counts:
srv1Rate = clampRate01(srv1Rate);
srv2Rate = clampRate01(srv2Rate);
retRate = clampRate01(retRate);
bpSaveRate = clampRate01(bpSaveRate);
sgWinRate = clampRate01(sgWinRate);
aceRate = clampRate01(aceRate);
dfRate = clampRate01(dfRate);
This will force any rate above 1 down to 1 (100%) and any rate below 0 up to 0%. In our example, a miscomputed return win rate of 4.839 (instead of 0.4839) would be clamped to 1.0, so it would print as 100.0% instead of 483.9%. While 100% is still not realistic, it’s a clear flag and far less confusing than a percentage over 100. It also prevents downstream formulas from blowing up if they expect values <= 1. After adding these clamps, re-run the output and check the Player Stats & Form section. All percentage stats like Return%, BPS (break points saved %), BPC (break points converted %) should now appear as reasonable values (0–100%). In our case, it should convert the erroneous “Return 483.9%” into a capped “Return 100.0%” if the underlying issue persists, or ideally a correct value once Fix 1 is applied. If you still see anything above 100%, it means the clamp didn’t execute or the value was turned into a percentage earlier in the code – double-check that the clamp is applied at the right place (immediately after computing the rate as a decimal).
Fix 3: Use Full Stats + Elo for Win Probability Blend
Issue: The script’s calculation of the match win probability (pBlendA) is oversimplified, leading to a wrong output. The summary sheet clearly shows a robust calculation: for example, Player A’s win chances were 71.85% when blending Elo and stats, and the stats-only model gave ~90.17% (indicating a big edge). However, the script’s output showed only 51.5% for Akira because it wasn’t incorporating those stats properly. In other words, the script’s pBlendA was essentially ignoring the rich stats advantage and leaning too heavily (or exclusively) on Elo or a baseline model, dragging a 72% favorite down to a coin flip. Cause: The current script likely blends only two components – e.g. an Elo-based probability (pElo) and a generic model probability (perhaps based on service hold/break model outcomes). It might be using something like service hold (SPW) metrics or a small subset of stats, and a fixed Elo weight (like 0.08), instead of the full last-5 stat analysis. The provided summary sheet indicates a more sophisticated approach was intended: calculating a stats-based win probability (P_statsA ≈ 0.9017 for Akira) and blending that with Elo (P_eloA ≈ 0.6401) to get P_blendA ≈ 0.7185. The script needs to replicate this by using all the key performance stats in the blend, not just one or two. How to fix: Incorporate a three-way blend of probabilities: the base model outcome, the stats-based estimate, and the Elo-based estimate. Here’s how:
Compute a stats-based rating for each player from their last-5 matches. This should use multiple performance indicators (serve, return, break points, aces, double faults, etc.) to produce an overall strength score. For example, we can take weighted components of:
Service hold rate (service games won / service games played) – indicates how often the player holds serve.
First serve and second serve win rates – contribute to hold strength.
Return points win rate – indicates how well the player wins points on opponent's serve.
Break point save rate – ability to save break points (clutch serving).
Break point convert rate – ability to break opponent.
Ace rate and double fault rate per service game – proxies for serve dominance vs inconsistency.
We then combine these into a single number between 0 and 1. For example, one might weight service hold and service points heavily, return points a bit less, etc. Here is a sample function based on the instructions:
function ratingFromStatsSide(side) {
var s = last5Auto(side); // get aggregated stats for the side ("A" or "B")
if (!s || s.quality === "ERROR" || s.matches === 0) {
return 0.5; // if no data or error, assume average (0.5)
}

// Extract rates with fallbacks in case of NaN/undefined
var spw = Number.isFinite(s.spw) ? s.spw : 0.65; // service points won (or hold) proxy
var hold = Number.isFinite(s.sgWinRate) ? s.sgWinRate : 0.75; // service games hold rate
var ret = Number.isFinite(s.retRate) ? s.retRate : 0.30; // return points win rate
var bpSv = Number.isFinite(s.bpSaveRate)? s.bpSaveRate: 0.50; // break points saved rate
var ace = Number.isFinite(s.aceRate) ? s.aceRate : 0.10; // aces per service game
var df = Number.isFinite(s.dfRate) ? s.dfRate : 0.10; // double faults per service game

// Scale extreme values for aces/DFs so they don't overweight the rating
var aceScaled = Math.min(ace / 0.8, 1); // cap ace rate: treat anything >=0.8 aces/SG as max
var dfScaled = Math.min(df / 0.5, 1); // cap double fault rate: >=0.5 DF/SG is very bad (max)

// Composite performance rating (0 to 1) using weighted sum of metrics
var rating =
0.30 * spw + // 30% weight to service points won (serve quality)
0.20 * hold + // 20% weight to service hold rate (ability to hold serve)
0.20 * ret + // 20% weight to return points won (return game quality)
0.15 * bpSv + // 15% weight to break-point save rate (clutch serving)
0.10 * aceScaled - // 10% weight to ace rate (more aces = better), scaled
0.05 * dfScaled; // -5% weight (penalty) to double fault rate, scaled

return clampRate01(rating);
}
This function produces a rating for each player (roughly between 0 and 1). In this example, the weights sum to 0.95 (with a 0.05 penalty possible for double faults), but after clamping it will be within [0,1]. Player A’s rating (rA) will be higher if they have stronger stats in these areas than Player B’s rating (rB).
Convert the stats ratings into a win probability for Player A. A simple way is to assume these ratings are like “skill” measures on a relative scale and use a logistic-like comparison:
P
stats
,
A

r
A
r
A
+
r
B
P
stats,A
​

r
A
​
+r
B
​

r
A
​

​

If A’s rating is much higher than B’s, this yields a number close to 1; if equal, 0.5. In code:
var rA = ratingFromStatsSide("A");
var rB = ratingFromStatsSide("B");
var pStatsA = clampRate01( rA / (rA + rB) );
For the given match, this should produce a high value (around 0.90 for Akira in the example, given the stats edge).
Obtain the other probabilities that are already being computed:
pModelA: the base model probability for A (e.g., derived from service hold/break modeling or match outcome simulation). In the script, this might be something like MO.outcomes.A20 + A21 for best-of-3 (sum of probabilities A wins in 2 sets or 3 sets). Ensure this is calculated correctly from the match context.
pElo: the Elo-based probability for A, which can be computed from the two players’ Elo ratings. The script likely does pElo = eloExpected(EloA, EloB) or reads a named range. Confirm that the Elo ratings are pulled from the Summary sheet correctly (e.g., cells or named ranges for EloA = 2100, EloB = 2000 in the example). If the script uses named ranges like ELOA, ELOB, make sure those exist and are up-to-date. The example P_eloA was ~0.6401 for Elo 2100 vs 2000.
Blend the three probabilities (model, stats, Elo) into a final win probability. Assign weights to each component and ensure they sum to 1 (normalize if needed). For example, you might give the base model a moderate weight, the stats a substantial weight (if you trust recent form), and Elo a smaller weight (to anchor long-term skill):
Model probability weight, wModel – e.g. 0.45 (45%)
Stats probability weight, wStats – e.g. 0.35 (35%)
Elo probability weight, wElo – e.g. 0.20 (20%)
These are example weights; you can adjust based on how predictive each component is. Make sure to normalize (divide each by the sum) so they truly add up to 100%. Then compute:
var wModel = 0.45, wStats = 0.35, wElo = 0.20;
var wSum = wModel + wStats + wElo;
wModel /= wSum; wStats /= wSum; wElo /= wSum;

var pFinalA = wModel * clampRate01(pModelA)
+ wStats * clampRate01(pStatsA)
+ wElo * clampRate01( Number.isFinite(pElo) ? pElo : pModelA );
pFinalA = clampRate01(pFinalA);
var pBlendA = pFinalA;
var pBlendB = 1 - pFinalA;
Here we also defensively clamp each component and handle cases where pElo might be undefined (using pModelA as a fallback if needed). The result pBlendA is the blended win probability for Player A.
Use pBlendA directly when printing the win probability. Remove any ad-hoc adjustments that might have been in place. For instance, if the script was doing something like pulling the favorite down towards 50% in an “upset alert” scenario, that should be disabled for the main probability output. We want the final printed Model Win Probability to reflect the actual blend. In our example, after implementing the above, it would print “Akira 71.8%, Player B 28.2%” (matching the sheet’s 71.85% vs 28.15%) instead of the incorrect 51.5%.
Verify after fixing: Check that the printed probabilities now align with expectations. Cross-verify with the Summary/Predictions sheet:
Elo values – ensure the script read the correct Elo ratings (2100 and 2000 in example).
P_statsA – for a sanity check, you can log or output the stats-based probability. It should be very high for Akira if their stats were much better (the example was 90%+).
Blended result – confirm that pBlendA in the script’s output is ~0.7185 for Akira (or whatever the Summary sheet’s blend shows for your case). You can cite the sheet’s own calculation as ground truth.
If there is still a discrepancy, look for any mis-referenced named ranges or mis-calculated components. For instance, ensure that the named ranges (like ELOBLEND weight if used, or any intermediate stat values) are correctly linked. Also ensure that last5Auto is returning realistic values (if not, revisit Fix 1).
By using a comprehensive blend of stats and Elo, the script will now properly reflect a strong favorite as a strong favorite. In our case, Akira’s 71.85% vs Player B’s 28.15% will be correctly displayed, instead of misleadingly suggesting a coin-flip match.
Fix 4: Refine the "Best Bet" Recommendation Logic
Issue: The script was automatically recommending the Over 19.5 games bet with 76.1% confidence, even though one player (Akira) was a heavy favorite. A one-sided match often does not lend itself to an over on total games – in fact, a dominant favorite can produce a quick straight-sets match (under the games line). The model should not blindly pick the over just because the expected total games (e.g. ~24.8) is above the line; it should consider the match context. Cause: The current logic likely calculates the probability of going over the total-games line (pOverG) from the projected total games (e.g. using a distribution or simple model) and compares it to 50%. If pOverG is above 0.5 (or significantly above), it picks "Over" as a value bet. In the example, the model estimated ~24.8 games on average, well above 19.5, leading to a high probability (76.1%) for over. However, this approach ignores why the total is high – if one player is much stronger, the total games can be high due to one long set or many breaks, but it can also fail if the underdog collapses early. How to fix: Introduce smarter rules to decide when to recommend a totals bet, especially in lopsided matches. We want to avoid recommending the Over in cases with a big favorite unless the edge is truly overwhelming, and consider the Under if appropriate. Here’s a refined approach:
Calculate key values: Make sure you have:
pOverG: probability the match goes over the total games line (already computed from your totals projection).
pUnderG = 1 - pOverG.
Identify the favorite’s win probability favProb = Math.max(pBlendA, pBlendB) and the favorite’s name.
Calculate each player’s hold percentage (service games won %) from the stats. If you have hA and hB as the hold rates (e.g., Akira holds ~71.6%, B holds ~72.3% after Fix 1), get the higher of the two: highHold = Math.max(hA, hB).
Determine if the match is one-sided: Set a threshold for a “big favorite.” For example, bigFav = (favProb >= 0.70) – meaning if one player is ≥70% likely to win (like Akira at ~72%), the match is one-sided.
Evaluate edges for totals: Determine how much perceived edge there is on the over or under:
edgeOver = pOverG - 0.5 (amount by which the over is more likely than a random 50%).
edgeUnder = pUnderG - 0.5 (amount by which the under is more likely than 50%).
These will be positive if there is an edge to exploit, e.g. edgeOver = 0.761 - 0.5 = 0.261 (26.1% edge) in the example, which is quite high.
Apply decision rules for recommendation:
If the match is relatively even (not a bigFav): This means both players have a fair chance (no one >70%). In such cases, totals might be more predictable because the match could be competitive. You can recommend the Over or Under whichever has a clear edge, as long as that edge is of a reasonable size:
If either edgeOver or edgeUnder is at least, say, 0.06 (6 percentage points), pick the side with the larger edge. (6% is a modest threshold to ensure value).
If both edges are small (<6%), you might skip a totals bet (no strong lean) and possibly default to another market or no "Best Bet" at all (or let the match winner bet be the main pick).
If the match has a big favorite (bigFav is true): Exercise more caution with totals:
If both players are strong servers (indicated by a high hold rate, e.g. highHold >= 0.80 or 80%), and you see a slight edge to the Under (edgeUnder >= 0.04 or 4%), then recommend Under the total. The logic here is: two strong servers might normally imply overs, but if one player is much better, the underdog might still not push it to long sets. A high hold% for the favorite and underdog could actually mean the underdog can hold serve just enough to lose sets 7–5 or 7–6, keeping totals high – but if the model still favors under even with high holds, that's a notable signal for under.
If there is a very large edge on Over (e.g. edgeOver >= 0.10 or 10%) even with a big favorite, then you can still consider Over. This covers cases where your model is extremely confident that the match will be long (for example, maybe the favorite is a slow starter or there are other reasons to expect a drawn-out match).
Otherwise (no strong edge or the edges are smaller than those cutoffs), do not recommend a totals bet in a one-sided match. In this scenario, default the Best Bet to the match winner (moneyline of the favorite) or another market. Since one player is heavily favored, the safest pick is likely the favorite to win, especially if the odds still have some value.
Implement the logic in code. For example:
var favProb = Math.max(pBlendA, pBlendB);
var favName = (pBlendA >= pBlendB ? names.A : names.B);
var bigFav = (favProb >= 0.70);
var highHold = (Math.max(hA, hB) >= 0.80);

var edgeOver = pOverG - 0.5;
var edgeUnder = (1 - pOverG) - 0.5;

var totalsPick = null, totalsProb = null;
if (!bigFav) {
// Close match: choose the bigger edge if significant
if (edgeOver >= 0.06 || edgeUnder >= 0.06) {
if (edgeOver >= edgeUnder) {
totalsPick = "Over " + lineTot.toFixed(1);
totalsProb = pOverG;
} else {
totalsPick = "Under " + lineTot.toFixed(1);
totalsProb = 1 - pOverG;
}
}
} else {
// One-sided match: stricter criteria
if (highHold && edgeUnder >= 0.04) {
totalsPick = "Under " + lineTot.toFixed(1);
totalsProb = 1 - pOverG;
} else if (edgeOver >= 0.10) {
totalsPick = "Over " + lineTot.toFixed(1);
totalsProb = pOverG;
} else {
totalsPick = null; // no strong totals bet
}
}

// Choose what to print as Best Bet
if (totalsPick) {
output.push("Best Bet: Total Games – " + totalsPick + " (" + pct(totalsProb) + ")");
} else {
output.push("Best Bet: Match Winner – " + favName + " (" + pct(favProb) + ")");
}
In this snippet, lineTot is the total games line (e.g. 19.5), and pct() is a function to format a probability as a percentage string. We decide on totalsPick according to the rules above, and if no totals bet is selected, we fall back to recommending the match winner (favorite) with their win probability.
Why this helps: In the example, Akira was a 71.85% favorite with decent hold rates, and the model’s over-edge was strong but came from expecting a competitive match. Our new logic would treat this as a big favorite scenario. We’d check highHold: Akira’s hold ~71.6% and B’s ~72.3% are good but not above 80%, so highHold is false. We then see edgeOver ≈ 0.261 (26.1% over edge) which is > 10%, so actually the logic could still pick Over 19.5 as a bet here (since the edge is very high). However, if the edge was marginal or moderate, we’d refrain. In many cases with a ~72% favorite, the edge might not be that high and this logic would default to Match Winner – [Favorite] as the Best Bet. This aligns the recommendation with common sense: if one player is strongly favored, usually backing that player to win (or an under, if the total is inflated) is safer than betting an over on total games. Verify after fixing: Test the output for a couple of scenarios:
A match with a big favorite (like our case). The Best Bet should no longer always be "Over X". It should be context-dependent. For Akira vs Player B, if after fixes the probabilities still indicate a huge over-edge, you might still see "Over 19.5" but if the edge is toned down due to corrected stats, you might see "Match Winner – Akira" as Best Bet. Make sure this matches your expectations or desired strategy.
A match with evenly matched players (e.g. each ~50-60% win probability). The code should allow totals bets if there’s a significant edge either way. For example, if pOverG = 0.55 (55%) and pUnderG = 0.45 for a balanced match, edgeOver = 0.05 and edgeUnder = -0.05, neither above 6%, so no totals bet would be recommended (and it might default to a moneyline if one side has any edge). If pOverG was 0.60 (60%, edgeOver 0.10) in a balanced match, it would recommend the Over.
Edge cases: if favProb is exactly 0.5 (dead even match), the logic goes to the first branch (not bigFav). If pOverG is exactly 0.5 (no lean), it recommends nothing special. This is fine.
By refining this logic, the script will no longer output an Over 19.5 (76.1%) type of recommendation inappropriately when one player clearly dominates. Instead, it will yield a betting tip that makes sense given the match dynamics (e.g., take the favorite to win, or if both players are big servers but one is much better, perhaps lean Under).
Summary: Verify Against the Live Spreadsheet Data
Implementing the above fixes will significantly improve the script, but accuracy depends on mirroring your spreadsheet’s data layout and named ranges exactly. Always double-check the following after editing the script:
Row and Column mapping: Ensure that the row indices (ROWSASTART, ROWSBSTART) point to the first match rows for each player, and that the column indices in COLS correspond to the correct stats. If you inserted any rows or columns in the sheet, update the script accordingly. A one-off error here can make all stats NaN or incorrect, which in turn makes all probabilities default or wrong. For example, if ROWSASTART was off, last5Auto("A") might return an object full of zeros, and the script would then use a fallback 0.5 (50%) for that player’s rating, wrecking the blend. The fix is to triple-check that every piece of data the script expects (names in column B, stats starting in column C, etc.) is aligned.
Named ranges and summary references: If the script pulls Elo ratings or other values via names (like ELOA, ELOB, or ELOBLEND weight), confirm those named ranges exist in the spreadsheet and refer to the correct cells. A typo in a range name or a missing range will cause the script to get undefined or stale values. For instance, if ELOA is not defined, the script’s realEloLookup(A) might return NaN and then use some default or the wrong value for pElo. This would throw off the blended probability. Make sure the Summary/Predictions sheet indeed has the Elo ratings and any weighting factors the script expects (like Elo blend weight, which might be 0.08 or some percentage in your sheet).
Cross-verify key outputs: After making changes, run the script and compare its output to your spreadsheet’s calculations for the same match:
Win probabilities: Does the script now print the correct Model Win Probability for each player, matching the blended probability from the sheet (e.g. ~71.8% vs 28.2% for Akira vs B)? If not, something is still misaligned in the inputs.
Stat percentages: Check the Player Stats & Form section. All percentages (Hold%, SPW%, Return%, BPS%, BPC%) should be 0–100% and should correspond to the ratios from the last 5 matches. If any are way off (like >100% or unrealistic), revisit Fix 1 and Fix 2 to ensure correct data reading and clamping. For example, “Return 483.9%” should never happen now – it should be a normal value like “Return 48.4%” if the data is correct.
Best Bet logic: Confirm that the Best Bet makes sense given the scenario. If your model had a strong favorite, the Best Bet should not blindly be an Over on games. It might be the favorite’s moneyline or an Under, depending on the edges. If you still see an obviously questionable recommendation, adjust the thresholds or logic in Fix 4’s implementation.
No errors in execution: All these changes should be made carefully. A misplaced parenthesis or a wrong variable name can break the script. Use any available debugging or logging to ensure each step is working (for example, log pStatsA, pElo, pModelA, pBlendA values to the console to see that they are sensible).
By diligently verifying each part of the script against the live data, you ensure that the output is trustworthy. The edits above address the major issues (alignment, percentage calculation, probability blending, and betting logic). After applying them, the script’s output for the example should read something like:
Model Win Probability: Akira ~71.8% vs Player B ~28.2% (correctly reflecting Akira as the strong favorite, not ~50% as before).
Player Stats: Hold 71.6%, SPW 59.8%, Return 48.4%, BPS 65.0%, BPC 30.0% (for example – realistic percentages instead of >100%).
Best Bet: likely “Match Winner – Akira (71.8%)” or no total bet, rather than an automatic “Over 19.5”. If the model truly thinks over is still the best value, it will be because the edge is significant and justifiable by the new logic.
In summary, small reference errors can lead to big mistakes in the output. Always align the script with the sheet, clamp your percentages, use all the stats for your win probability, and incorporate contextual logic for betting tips. Double-checking each fix against the actual spreadsheet data will ensure the model’s printed summary is accurate and actionable.