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帮我分析一下全球的铝土矿市场的供应情况，大的供需趋势是什么? （供大于求、小于求、平衡） 未来10年...

Created on: August 26, 2025

Answered using Deep Research by Chat01

Question

帮我分析一下全球的铝土矿市场的供应情况，大的供需趋势是什么? （供大于求、小于求、平衡）
未来10年主要有哪些国家会增加铝土矿产能？全球供应端产能的CAGR会是多少？

Answer

为了更好地分析全球铝土矿市场的供应情况和未来趋势，能否请你确认以下几点：

  1. 你希望我们分析的时间起点是现在（2025年）开始，向后看10年吗？
  2. 是否希望重点关注原铝土矿的开采产能，而不是氧化铝或铝的下游产能？
  3. 是否对重点国家有特定关注？例如中国、几内亚、澳大利亚、印度等。
  4. 是否需要图表或数据表格形式呈现供需趋势、国家分布、CAGR等？

确认这些信息后，我将立即展开详细研究。

Question

  1. 预测是25年后，分析可以结合21-25年
  2. 是的，铝土矿开采产能
  3. 没有
  4. 不需要

Answer

明白了。我将分析2021–2025年的全球铝土矿供应情况，以及2025年起未来10年的产能增长趋势和供需平衡情况。重点是铝土矿开采产能，不局限于特定国家。我会尽快整理并反馈给你详细结果。

Research

✨ I'm analyzing the global bauxite market from 2021 to 2025, considering supply-demand trends and forecasting mining capacity for 2025-2035, focusing on key producing countries.

🔍 Searched for global bauxite supply demand forecast

✨ I’m curious about which countries will drive growth in the global bauxite market and am considering the Fitch Solutions article for insights.

🌐 Read fitchsolutions.com

✨ OK, let me see. The Fitch Solutions piece from May 2021 might not cover updates beyond then, so it could be interesting to cross-check with a more recent source.

🌐 Read theassay.com

✨ Supply is increasing by 2.2% CAGR 2021-2025, with Australia and Guinea driving growth, while demand surges due to rising primary aluminum consumption.

🔍 Searched for bauxite supply demand balance analysis

✨ Now, I’m digging into a keyword search for better clarity on oversupply impacts.

🌐 Read chemanalyst.com

✨ OK, let me see. The ChemAnalyst article from July 2025 highlights an oversupply of bauxite by mid-2025, likely driven by high imports from China and stock build-ups. Considering earlier periods, oversupply might have gradually emerged, especially post-2021 with China's increased imports.

🌐 Read news.metal.com

✨ OK, let me see. Alumina production growth is limited by bauxite supply. Surplus expected in 2025. Now, I’m looking at Alcircle for bauxite price trends.

🌐 Read alcircle.com

✨ I'm curious about the rhythmic dance between supply and demand from 2021 to 2025, maintaining a delicate balance.

🔍 Searched for global bauxite oversupply deficit analysis

✨ OK, let me see. The search result titled "Global shifts in bauxite demand and supply" from Next Investors explores the changes in demand and supply dynamics for bauxite.

🌐 Read nextinvestors.com

✨ I'm thinking through the bauxite market's supply and demand shifts, considering Guinea's political and economic fluctuations, which deeply affect the bauxite supply chain. Progress is steady, anticipating 2024 and 2025.

🌐 Read mining-technology.com

✨ I'm working through the global reliance on Guinea for its bauxite exports, estimating Guinea's supply to potentially account for 28.4% of the total global supply in 2024.

🔍 Searched for Guinea bauxite supply 2024

🌐 Read mine.nridigital.com

✨ I'm mapping out global bauxite production and consumption trends, noting a projected supply gap by 2030. Monitoring developments in key producing countries and their expansion efforts is crucial.

🔍 Searched for global bauxite production forecast CAGR 2030-2035

✨ I'm piecing together various forecasts of bauxite mining capacity, examining conflicting figures like ChemAnalyst's 3.99% CAGR and GlobalData/Fitch's 0.4% CAGR, and considering the impact of new projects beyond 2030.

🌐 Read chemanalyst.com

✨ I’m pulling together data from ChemAnalyst to get a clearer picture of the bauxite market. I’m also considering reports from Fitch and others to understand better regional forecasts and growth rates.

🌐 Read uk.finance.yahoo.com

🔍 Searched for bauxite production 406.7Mt by 2025

✨ I'm evaluating the next steps and weighing the available options.

🌐 Read mining-technology.com

✨ OK, let me see. I’m thinking through the various angles of Mining Journal to get a comprehensive idea of its offerings.

🌐 Read mining-journal.com

✨ I'm examining the bauxite supply-demand dynamics from 2021 to 2025, spotting a potential oversupply by 2025. Long-term forecasts indicate supply might lag without more investment.

🔍 Searched for Fitch Solutions bauxite outlook 2023

✨ We’re analyzing the mentioned citations to ensure their relevance and completeness. Specifically, examining the potential of [4] being a PDF version of an IDSC Library copy.

🌐 Read library.idsc.gov.eg

🌐 Read miningweekly.com

✨ I'm examining Guinea's bauxite production, noting a significant increase up to 2024, and considering the potential for continued growth. This is shaping up to be a noteworthy trend.

🔍 Searched for bauxite forecast 2030-2035 Guinea Australia new mines

✨ Noticing a potential growth rate discrepancy, I calculated a 1.6% CAGR, suggesting refined base estimates. This aligns with expected global production and offers clearer insights.

🌐 Read indexbox.io

✨ I’m mapping out bauxite consumption and production trends, noting discrepancies between GlobalData and IndexBox forecasts, and examining the shift in market dynamics and supply-demand balance.

🌐 Read aluminium.org.au

✨ I'm following the impact of Aussie and Indonesian bauxite mining on global markets through mid-2023 data. This includes Australian mine expansions and the Indonesian export ban.

🔍 Searched for Indonesia bauxite export ban 2023

✨ Weighing Indonesia's bauxite production potential. Constraints like bans and refineries impact long-term growth projections.

🔍 Searched for Vietnam bauxite production plan 2030

✨ Vietnam is set to boost alumina production by 2030, with a target of 8-10 new bauxite mines.

🌐 Read vir.com.vn

✨ I'm outlining bauxite mining developments, noting Vietnam's forthcoming mines, Ghana's potential, and Indonesia's export halt. Also considering new producers and minor increases.

🌐 Read argusmedia.com

✨ I’m mapping out the global bauxite production forecast, noting the slowdown in China and India, and the steady progress in Guinea and Australia.

Research completed in 7m

Answer

2021–2025年全球铝土矿供应状况及供需趋势

过去数年间全球铝土矿产量稳步上升。根据GlobalData的数据，2021年全球铝土矿产量约3.73亿吨，预计到2025年将增至约4.067亿吨，2021–2025年年均复合增长率约为2.2% (Bauxite production set to rise: GlobalData) 。主要增产来自澳大利亚和几内亚等国：例如，2021年澳大利亚和几内亚产量分别增长4.1%和3.6%，帮助全球供应从2020年的低谷恢复 (Bauxite Booming on Rising Chinese Aluminium Demand) (Bauxite Booming on Rising Chinese Aluminium Demand) 。随着各国矿山复产及新项目投产，全球铝土矿供应总体充足。

供需关系方面，2021–2024年全球铝土矿供应基本满足下游氧化铝冶炼需求，但到2025年前后出现了供大于求的迹象。据行业报道，2025年上半年铝土矿市场呈现供应过剩，中国港口和精炼厂库存持续累积，铝土矿价格走低 (Bauxite prices dip owing to declined demand and supply in first half of 2025) 。例如，截至2025年6月，九个主要港口的铝土矿库存已增至2,335万吨，比1月增加了937万吨，反映出矿石进口量高企、消耗偏慢所导致的库存过剩 (Bauxite prices dip owing to declined demand and supply in first half of 2025) 。因此2025年全球铝土矿市场供给略大于需求，库存积压表明供过于求。不过，下半年随着新兴经济体基建项目带动需求上扬，市场预计供需将有所重新靠拢 (Global Bauxite Market Feels the Weight of Oversupply in June) (Global Bauxite Market Feels the Weight of Oversupply in June) 。

值得注意的是，长期趋势显示未来铝土矿需求增长可能快于供应增长。如GlobalData所述，预计2024–2030年全球铝土矿消费量年均增长约2%，从2024年的4.21亿吨增至2030年的5.02亿吨；而在已知产能项目下，同期产量年增速仅约0.4%，产量从4.07亿吨小幅增至4.324亿吨 (Growing demand for bauxite highlights risks of dependence on Guinea’s supplies - Mine | Issue 142 | July 2024) 。也就是说，若不新增更多矿山，供给增速将低于需求增速，到本十年末可能出现供应偏紧局面 (Growing demand for bauxite highlights risks of dependence on Guinea’s supplies - Mine | Issue 142 | July 2024) 。因此尽管2021–2025年阶段性地供应宽松，但为满足未来需求，全球铝土矿产能需要进一步扩张。

2025–2035年全球铝土矿开采产能展望

展望未来十年（2025–2035），全球铝土矿开采产能总体将稳步提升，主要增产来自以下国家和地区：

全球产能年复合增长率（CAGR）预测

综合多方预测，未来10年全球铝土矿开采产能将以较低的年增速增长。IndexBox预计2024–2035年全球铝土矿市场规模年均增长约1.0%，届时全球年需求量（基本相当于产量）将从2024年的4.49亿吨增至2035年的约5.01亿吨 (Global Bauxite Market to Expand with +1.0% CAGR, Reaching 37.9B by 2035 - News and Statistics - IndexBox](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/bauxite-world-market-overview-2024-2/#:~:text=Driven%20by%20rising%20demand%20for,9B%2C%20respectively%2C%20by%202035)) 。这一增速反映出在当前已知项目投产节奏下，供应增长相对温和。然而，铝行业对铝土矿的需求可能以更快速度增长：GlobalData预测到2030年铝土矿需求年增速约2% ([Growing demand for bauxite highlights risks of dependence on Guinea’s supplies - Mine | Issue 142 | July 2024](https://mine.nridigital.com/mine_jul24/growing-demand-bauxite-dependence-guinea-supply#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20bauxite%20market%20outlook%20from,%E2%80%9D)) 。若要满足**2%/年的需求增长**并避免供应缺口，**铝土矿产能年增速需要相应提高至2–3%**左右。这意味着需要更多新矿山投产和现有产能扩张。总的来说，在保守情景下未来十年全球铝土矿产能CAGR约为1% ([Global Bauxite Market to Expand with +1.0% CAGR, Reaching 37.9B by 2035 - News and Statistics - IndexBox) ；在需求拉动的积极情景下，产能年增速有望提升至2%左右甚至更高，以实现供需平衡 (Growing demand for bauxite highlights risks of dependence on Guinea’s supplies - Mine | Issue 142 | July 2024) 。

总结： 2021–2025年全球铝土矿供应稳步增加，市场总体宽松并一度出现供大于求局面。展望2025年之后十年，多国将扩充铝土矿开采产能，尤其是几内亚、澳大利亚等传统大国以及印尼、印度、越南等新兴力量。全球产能预计以年约1–2%的速度增长 (Global Bauxite Market to Expand with +1.0% CAGR, Reaching $37.9B by 2035 - News and Statistics - IndexBox) 。如果铝需求进一步加速，各产地产能扩张也将相应提速，以确保未来供需保持动态平衡 (Growing demand for bauxite highlights risks of dependence on Guinea’s supplies - Mine | Issue 142 | July 2024) 。

参考来源： 全球矿业研究机构和行业媒体的预测和数据 (Bauxite production set to rise: GlobalData) (Growing demand for bauxite highlights risks of dependence on Guinea’s supplies - Mine | Issue 142 | July 2024) (Growing demand for bauxite highlights risks of dependence on Guinea’s supplies - Mine | Issue 142 | July 2024) 等。上述分析聚焦原铝土矿开采环节，不涉及氧化铝或原铝冶炼产能。

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