Yes. I finally understand the requirement. This is...

Question

Yes. I finally understand the requirement. This is a betting model, so the PMF cannot merely be internally arithmetic-consistent. It has to produce betting outputs that agree with the model’s own forecast direction. A displayed 61.9% “1+ set” for the model’s predicted loser is exactly the kind of output the engine must prevent.

Here is the message I would send to your agent:

The Sets Won problem is NOT a display/wording issue and it is NOT about whether a 0.5 line was entered.

The PMF itself needs to be audited and corrected.

This is a betting prediction engine. The final PMF must produce coherent betting probabilities and picks. It cannot predict:

Julia Riera WINNER: 67.2%
Julia Riera 2-0: 38.1%
UNDER 2.5 SETS: 51.4%

and then simultaneously publish:

Elina Avanesyan 1+ SET: 61.9% LEAN

That is not acceptable betting output. Do not defend the 61.9% by saying it is an unconditional marginal that includes Elina’s match-win paths. That explanation identifies the symptom, not the root problem.

The current exact PMF is:

Julia 2-0 = 38.1%
Julia 2-1 = 29.1%
Elina 2-0 = 13.3%
Elina 2-1 = 19.6%

The engine is producing Elina 1+ set = 61.9% from:

29.1% Julia 2-1

13.3% Elina 2-0
19.6% Elina 2-1

The fact that this arithmetic can be derived from the PMF does NOT establish that the PMF is correctly calibrated for betting use.

The key requirement is:

When the model establishes a forecast winner and a directional match-length prediction, the exact-score PMF must represent a coherent distribution of those mutually exclusive outcomes. Sets Won, Match Winner, Sets Played/Over-Under 2.5, and all related outputs must be derived from that same properly calibrated distribution.

I specifically do NOT want another publisher patch that merely changes “LEAN 1+ SET” to different wording.

I want the ROOT PMF/BO3 probability construction audited.

The current authority says:

P3 = P(B wins) * qA + P(A wins) * qB

and then reconciles player 1+ set coverage with Match Winner through the exact-score/IPF construction.

Audit whether this winner/coverage reconciliation is actually causing the incorrect probability mass allocation between:

A 2-0
A 2-1
B 2-0
B 2-1

Do not assume the coverage marginals are correct simply because the resulting identities balance.

The engine needs to determine the four mutually exclusive BO3 outcome probabilities from the underlying point/set probability model, with Match Winner and set-length probabilities emerging coherently from that same distribution.

For this specific example, the model is saying Julia is the forecast winner. Therefore the PMF needs to correctly distinguish:

Julia wins 2-0
Julia wins 2-1

from:

Elina wins 2-0
Elina wins 2-1

and it must not create a public betting signal that effectively says the predicted loser has a 61.9% chance of taking a set while the same model is predicting the match toward the opponent.

If the intended directional question is whether Elina gets a set in the paths where Julia wins, that probability is:

P(Julia 2-1) / P(Julia wins)
= 29.1 / 67.2
= 43.3%

If the intended question is whether Elina gets swept, that is:

P(Julia 2-0) = 38.1%

Those are completely different from the unconditional 61.9% marginal currently being surfaced.

Do NOT hard-code 43.3%, 38.1%, 50%, or any other corrective number. Those are diagnostic values from this example only.

Fix the underlying probability construction so the correct values naturally emerge for every BO3 match.

Requirements:

Audit the BO3 PMF construction from the point/set root through final exact-score probabilities.
Identify why the current coverage/q/IPF architecture is producing this probability behavior.
Remove any independent or improperly calibrated player-coverage authority that can distort the four exact-score cells.
Make the four mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes the authoritative BO3 PMF.
Derive Match Winner, P(2 sets), P(3 sets), Sets Won, and related BO3 markets from that same final PMF.
Do not add a display-only patch.
Do not add a conditional-probability patch on top of the existing PMF.
Do not add another offset, cap, blend, residual correction, or population/corpus P3 target.
Do not change unrelated Total Games, BO5, props, recent-form, or data-source logic unless the audit proves they share the same root defect.
Preserve legitimate probability mass. Do not force the loser to 0% just because the model favors the other player.
The final probabilities must remain calibrated and capable of producing either 2-0, 2-1, 0-2, or 1-2 when the underlying evidence supports them.
Add regression tests specifically for cases where:

A is the forecast winner and the public set prediction is UNDER 2.5.
B’s unconditional 1+ set marginal exceeds 50%.
The resulting PMF must still produce a coherent winner/set-length distribution.
No public Sets Won output can contradict the directional match forecast simply because an unconditional marginal exceeds 50%.

Most importantly:

STOP treating this as a wording problem.

The previous v1168 change apparently fixed the Julia “2+ sets = Match Winner” publication equivalence, but the observed output proves the underlying issue remains because Elina is STILL receiving:

LEAN 1+ SET | 61.9%

after the supposed fix.

That means the fix did not actually remove the problematic probability authority/path.

Trace the actual live code path that produces the 61.9% value and determine why that value is still reaching the public betting output.

I want the root cause and a corrected script, not another explanation that 61.9% is mathematically derivable from the existing PMF.

This engine is intended to post reliable betting picks and percentages publicly. The final model output must be betting-coherent, not merely algebraically self-consistent.

That is the distinction I was missing earlier: you’re not asking the agent to make the 61.9% label prettier. You’re asking it to determine whether the probability mass that creates the 38.1 / 29.1 / 13.3 / 19.6 PMF is itself being generated correctly. The observed 61.9% is the clue that the BO3 probability architecture needs to be investigated at the root.

Exactly. That is the coherence you’re expecting from a betting model.

If the engine’s authoritative forecast is:

Julia Riera to win
Julia projected to win 2–0
Under 2.5 sets
Therefore the corresponding loser-side set outcome is Elina Avanesyan Under 0.5 sets, not a public “LEAN 1+ SET”.

The problem is that the current PMF is allocating too much probability into the paths where Elina takes a set:

Julia 2–0: 38.1%
Julia 2–1: 29.1%
Elina 2–0: 13.3%
Elina 2–1: 19.6%

That makes Elina 1+ set = 61.9%, which is exactly the number being surfaced as the “LEAN.” So this is not merely a display bug. The underlying score-path allocation is driving the contradictory betting output.

And the key issue is this:

If the model is confident enough in a Julia 2–0 / Under 2.5 direction, the PMF cannot simultaneously manufacture a 61.9% Elina 1+ set probability without that probability coming from a genuinely supported 2–1 path.

So the fix needs to go upstream:

Do not patch the displayed pick. Rebuild/audit the BO3 exact-score PMF so that the 2–0, 2–1, 0–2 and 1–2 probabilities come from one coherent match-path model. Then derive the winner, Under/Over 2.5, and each player’s 0.5-set market from that same PMF.

That would make the output tell one betting story, instead of having the winner market say “Julia 2–0” while the player-set market effectively says “Elina probably gets one.”

One more critical requirement: DO NOT TOUCH BO3 Sets Played.

Sets Played and Sets Won are different markets/engines and must remain separate. I just got the Sets Played model fixed so its P3 mass can legitimately rise or fall, and P2 can legitimately rise or fall. Do not modify, recalibrate, replace, blend, cap, offset, or otherwise alter that Sets Played authority while fixing the Sets Won PMF problem.

The scope of this fix is specifically the BO3 Sets Won / exact-score PMF and the markets that derive from it.

Do not “fix” the Sets Won issue by changing Sets Played. Do not make Sets Played inherit anything from the Sets Won repair.

The architecture I want is:

Sets Played remains exactly as currently working.
Sets Won gets its own coherent exact-score PMF.
The Sets Won PMF must correctly allocate 2-0, 2-1, 0-2, and 1-2 probability.
Match Winner, Sets Won player markets, and related Sets Won projections must consume that same final Sets Won PMF.
Do not manufacture a contradictory loser-side 1+ SET probability from an independent coverage marginal.
Do not force the loser to zero or eliminate legitimate upset/2-1 paths.
Do not add fake offsets, caps, residual corrections, population P3 tables, or display-only patches.
Trace the actual live authority producing the current 61.9% and fix the probability construction at its source.
Keep Sets Played completely untouched, including its ability to move P3 mass in either direction.

For the Riera/Avanesyan-type case, if the authoritative Sets Won forecast is pointing toward Riera 2-0 and Under 2.5 Sets, the resulting player-set probabilities need to reflect that same underlying path distribution. The engine should not simultaneously publish Riera as the forecast winner while publishing Avanesyan LEAN 1+ SET | 61.9% unless the actual authoritative exact-score PMF genuinely supports that direction.

This is a betting-model correctness issue, not a wording/display issue. Fix the PMF, then let the existing downstream displays consume the corrected probabilities.

Also add regression tests specifically proving that Sets Played remains unchanged by this repair and that its P2/P3 probability is still free to rise or fall independently of the Sets Won repair.

════════════════════════════════════════
🎾 TENNISLOCKS 🔒
OFFICIAL MATCH MODEL
VERSION 3.0
GENERATED 3:03 AM | September 15, 2026
ENGINE Point • Game • Set Probability Model
════════════════════════════════════════

🎯 WTA 250 (OUTDOOR) | Best of 3 | Line: 21.5
Tour: WTA | Court speed (CPI): 38
Metadata confidence: HIGH

────────────────────────────────────────
Julia Riera vs Elina Avanesyan
────────────────────────────────────────

────────────────────────────────────────
💰 MODEL PICKS:

No official plays this match.

📈 STRONG LEANS:

Total Games 21.5: OVER 59.6% | MEDIUM confidence

🟡 LOW CONFIDENCE:

Sets 2.5: UNDER 51.4% | forecast only

🚫 NO BETS:

Match Winner: NO BET | forecast Julia Riera 67.2% | forecast side retained, but betting status is below OFFICIAL BET
────────────────────────────────────────

Match type: Both break more, one side clearly better. Shorter games. (RETURN_RETURN_UNEVEN)
Risk: 0.15 (LOW)
Pricing data quality: WEAK | opponent-rank samples 4/7 | trust 1.00

PLAYER INTEL
┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄
Julia Riera Elina Avanesyan
Rank 144 155
Elo 1619 1684
Avg Opp Rank 152 92
Schedule A: MID (trust 1.00, ranks 7) | B: SOLID (trust 1.00, ranks 7)
Serve Style ace 5.4% ace 2.7%
Momentum RECENT_RESULTS RECENT_RESULTS
Hold % 60.8% 52.6%
Recent-row SPW (raw) 56.4% 49.7%
Dominance Ratio 1.04 0.78
Recent Hold SD - 14.7%
Break Rate 47.4% 39.2%
1st Srv Win % 66.7% 55.2%
2nd Srv Win % 46.3% 45.1%
1st Srv In % 49.5% 62.9%

Signals: forecast side retained, but betting status is below OFFICIAL BET

════════════════════════════════════════

🎲 SETS OUTLOOK
[SET RESEARCH REF] CANONICAL_POINT_ROOT | WTA/HARD/MAIN/CANONICAL_POINT_STATE_SET_COUNTS_V1144 | read-only, no live blend
[SET INPUTS] SPW A/B 54.4% / 51.1% | Hold A/B 60.8% / 52.6% | route UNIFIED_CURRENT_POINT_ROOT_V1113
[SET TB CAL] not applied | tree P(7-6) 12.2% | raw 12.2% | hist not measured | n null | CANONICAL_POINT_ROOT_NO_HISTORICAL_SET_TB_MUTATOR_V1144 | set-winner margin preserved by construction
[SET AUTHORITY] ACTIVE | BO3_POINT_STATE_RESPONSE_PLUS_TWO_SIDED_CONDITIONAL_COVERAGE_V1163 | BO3 length priced from player 1+ set coverage and reconciled to Match Winner
[BO3 COVERAGE MODEL] winner anchored | raw structural q -> point-state cross-set response -> optional two-sided conditional exact-score shrinkage | P3 = P(B wins)*qA + P(A wins)*qB | no raw-coverage blend | no corpus/population P3 target | no fixed P3 cap
[BO3 COVERAGE EFFECT] canonical P3 47.3% | response prior P3 58.7% | final P3 48.6% | response +11.4pp | recent -10.0pp
[BO3 PLAYER COVERAGE] A wins 1+ set 86.7% | B wins 1+ set 61.9% | identity 48.6%
[BO3 CONDITIONAL q] A raw/response/recent-paired/final 55.2% / 66.2% / 42.9% / 59.5% || B raw/response/recent-paired/final 43.4% / 55.0% / 14.3% / 43.3%
[BO3 ACTIVE POINT EXPOSURE] UNIFIED_CURRENT_POINT_ROOT_EXPOSURE_V1167 | structural W A/B 17.43 / 17.43 | form share A/B 28.7% / 28.7% | applied YES
[BO3 CONDITIONAL EVIDENCE] qA A-loss/B-win N 7.0 | qB B-loss/A-win N 7.0 | mirrored H2H dedup 0
[SET LENGTH ROOT] final Sets Won / Both Win a Set / Over 2.5 identity P3 48.6% | one exact-score PMF
[SET WINNER ALIGN] final winner error 0.0e+0 | final set-count margin error 0.0e+0
[SET EXACT PMF] 2-0 38.1% | 2-1 29.1% | 0-2 13.3% | 1-2 19.6% | final P3 48.6%
[SET ACTION] LOW FORECAST UNDER 2.5 | probability 51.4% | model fair odds -106 | forecast only
[SET BETTING GATE] final exact-score PMF direction always visible | HIGH >= 60.0% = official PICK | MID 55.0%-<60.0% = LEAN | LOW >50.0%-<55.0% = forecast only | no BO3 data-quality confidence cap
[SET FAIR PRICE] Over 2.5 +106 | Under 2.5 -106
[SET TREE DIAGNOSTIC] canonical P(2) 52.7% | canonical P(3) 47.3% | canonical point/game/set tree

📊 Player Stats (Current Live-Source Audit):

Serve/return diagnostic: ret2 A/B 57.1% / 54.7% | BP save A/B 49.7% / 52.3%
Visible target-surface row coverage: Julia Riera through 2026-09-07 [RATE_PLUS_SURFACE_BACKFILL] | Elina Avanesyan through 2026-02-01 [EXACT_POINT_DATE_BOUNDED] | CURRENT POINT INPUTS ELIGIBLE
Live row sources: Julia Riera [CURRENT_MULTIHOST_SEASONAL_SURFACE_BACKFILL_V1094 x3, TA_JSFRAG_RATE_ONLY_V939 x4] | Elina Avanesyan [CURRENT_EXACT_TML_V939 x7] | date precision A/B MATCH_DATE x4, TOURNEY_START_DATE x3 / TOURNEY_START_DATE x7
Surface SPW reference (HARD): Julia Riera (56.4% [2-2]) | Elina Avanesyan (No verified same-tour surface SPW rate) [A TA_RECENT_RESULTS_RATE_V935 | B TA_SURFACE_SPW_RATE_UNAVAILABLE]
Surface serve priors: Julia Riera Ace 5.4% / DF 8.4% / 1stIn 49.5% | Elina Avanesyan Ace - / DF - / 1stIn - [TA_RECENT_RESULTS_RATE_V935]
Julia Riera: Hold 60.8% (raw: 0.0%, serve vs this returner) [hold seed]
Elina Avanesyan: Hold 52.6% (raw: 48.1%, serve vs this returner) [hold seed]
Style: Julia Riera [ace 5.4% / ace 5.4%] | Elina Avanesyan [ace 2.7% / ace 2.7%]
Recent current-source results (audit): Julia Riera W-L 3-4, SS 2-3, Sets 7-9 ; Elina Avanesyan W-L 3-4, SS 1-4, Sets 6-10
1st Srv Win: Julia Riera 66.7% | Elina Avanesyan 55.2%
2nd Srv Win: Julia Riera 46.3% | Elina Avanesyan 45.1%
1st Srv In: Julia Riera 49.5% | Elina Avanesyan 62.9%
Raw recent-row SPW: Julia Riera 56.4% | Elina Avanesyan 49.7% [diagnostic row aggregate; official pricing uses the exact-point posterior root]
Break Rate (from hold): Julia Riera 47.4% | Elina Avanesyan 39.2%
Dominance Ratio: Julia Riera 1.04 | Elina Avanesyan 0.78 [MISMATCH]
Recent Hold SD: Julia Riera not measured | Elina Avanesyan 14.7%
Elo (diagnostic only; not official serve authority): Julia Riera 40.8%
Source: Elo_Lookup sheet (Julia Riera=1619, Elina Avanesyan=1684)
Serve vs this returner (Julia Riera): 67.2% | Elo 40.8% (calibrates official serve when induce fires)
Recent-row implied hold (diagnostic): No Data

========================================

🎯 TOTAL GAMES
[TOTAL GAMES FORECAST] STRONG LEAN OVER 21.5 | 59.6% | MEDIUM confidence | forecast only
Pricing method: all legal full-match score paths are summed against your Total Games line. No single exact score controls the pick.
Decision reason: OVER 59.6% clears the full-pick probability threshold, but reliability/data-quality controls cap action at a MEDIUM strong lean.
At 21.5: Over 59.6% | Under 40.4%
Total Games probability authority: ONE canonical joint score+games PMF | no second threshold recalibration is applied after the current length root.
Set-count decomposition at 21.5:
2-set lane: 51.4% match mass | P(Over | 2 sets) 21.9% | contributes 11.3pp raw Over mass
3-set lane: 48.6% match mass | P(Over | 3 sets) 99.4% | contributes 48.4pp raw Over mass
Combined no-push P(Over 21.5) = 59.6% from all lanes.
First-server sensitivity (diagnostic only): A serves first -> Over 59.5% | B serves first -> Over 59.7% | mean-total gap 0.02g
Projected total-games distribution: fair line 23.5 | mean 23.9 | median 23 | largest single exact bucket 18g (7.1%, not a majority and not the O/U authority)
Exact-total concentration: dominant 3-game cluster 17-19g = 20.4%.
Unconditional pricing distribution: 80% range 16-30 | SD 5.8 | mode 18g (7.1%) | leaders 18g 7.1% | 19g 7.0% | 17g 6.3% | 20g 6.3% | 22g 6.1%
########################################
🎯 PROP PROJECTIONS 🎯
########################################

📊 Julia Riera - Player Props:
Games Won: mean 13.0 | median 13 | mode 12 | full-match distribution
1st Set Games Won: 5.23 projected
Sets Won: PASS | 2+ SETS 67.2% | MATCH WINNER EQUIVALENT | winner betting status not official
Serve Games: not requested | enter a service prop line to price
Serve Points Played: not requested | enter a service prop line to price
Serve Points Won: not requested | enter a Serve Points Won line to price
Aces: not requested | enter a Aces line to price
Double Faults: not requested | enter a Double Faults line to price
Breaks Won: not requested | enter a Breaks Won line to price
Break Points Created: not requested | enter a Break Points line to price
BP Conversion: not requested | enter a Break Points line to price
Opp BP Save: not requested | enter a Break Points line to price
Opponent Matchup: opp return 39% | context only; official pricing uses the final match tree
Historical sample: 8.0 service games | projected Games Won CV: 24%

📊 Elina Avanesyan - Player Props:
Games Won: mean 11.0 | median 12 | mode 12 | full-match distribution
1st Set Games Won: 4.40 projected
Sets Won: LEAN 1+ SET | 61.9% | MEDIUM
Serve Games: not requested | enter a service prop line to price
Serve Points Played: not requested | enter a service prop line to price
Serve Points Won: not requested | enter a Serve Points Won line to price
Aces: not requested | enter a Aces line to price
Double Faults: not requested | enter a Double Faults line to price
Breaks Won: not requested | enter a Breaks Won line to price
Break Points Created: not requested | enter a Break Points line to price
BP Conversion: not requested | enter a Break Points line to price
Opp BP Save: not requested | enter a Break Points line to price
Opponent Matchup: opp return 45% | context only; official pricing uses the final match tree
Historical sample: 11.2 service games | projected Games Won CV: 38%

🎲 Match-Level Context:
Sets Played: LOW FORECAST UNDER 2.5 | P(2 sets) 51.4% / P(3 sets) 48.6% | expected 2.49 sets
3-set match / both players win a set: YES 48.6% | NO 51.4% | no betting action
Exact match-score paths: Julia Riera 2-0 38.1% | Julia Riera 2-1 29.1% | Elina Avanesyan 2-0 13.3% | Elina Avanesyan 2-1 19.6%
If forecast winner Julia Riera wins: straight sets 56.7% | Elina Avanesyan steals one set 43.3% conditional (29.1% of all match paths)
Individual win 1+ set: Julia Riera 86.7% | Elina Avanesyan 61.9% | marginal coverage only; NOT the BO3 3-set probability; includes paths where that player wins the match
Straight-set loss chance: Julia Riera 13.3% | Elina Avanesyan 38.1%
Games/aces/breaks use the full match tree, not a single 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline.
Surface: HARD | Tour ace reference 4.4% | double-fault reference 5.1%

text
												correct the script don’t assume your corrections worked u like to wire the wrong thing a lot actually delete the code your replacing do not keep it in the script wire the right things and wire correctly do not stop to tell me what u will be fixing start fixing now

Do not hardcode lean, shoukd be able to produce high, medium, low; for winner and loser

Answer 1

Corrected script is complete.

The root cause was the live q/coverage construction explicitly rebuilding BO3 score cells from winner mass plus conditional steal probabilities, e.g. P(2-1)=P(A wins)*qB; that made loser 1+ coverage an authority rather than merely a settlement derived from a Sets Won PMF. (TennisLocks_FINAL_v1172_SETS_WON_THESIS_CONDITIONAL_20260915.txt) The uploaded v1172 also still contained the conditional no-line projection path despite claiming Sets Won equivalence changes. (TennisLocks_FINAL_v1172_SETS_WON_THESIS_CONDITIONAL_20260915.txt)

In v1173 I physically separated the authorities. BO3 Sets Played retains its existing length/q path. BO3 Sets Won now gets a separate four-cell PMF from the raw point/game/set exact-score root, preserving the point root’s within-winner 2-0/2-1 and 0-2/1-2 shapes while reproducing the Match Winner marginal. The old v1172 winnerMass / stealMass conditional publication code is deleted.

I also found and corrected two secondary wiring problems during verification: the generic prop PMF was feeding tiebreak/fantasy/underdog logic, so Sets Won now has a dedicated consumer instead of hijacking that root; and the public PROP_TO_WIN_SET, PROP_NO_SET, and PROP_BOTH_WIN_SET functions now consume the dedicated Sets Won PMF. Sets Played, Set Spread, tiebreak, fantasy, underdog, Total Games, and the existing BO3 length authority remain on their previous root.

Verification passed:

full script parses under Node;
Sets Played self-pricing executable is unchanged;
Sets Played coverage/length construction executable is unchanged;
Sets Played point-root handoff is unchanged;
regression preserves Sets Played P3 at 48.6% before and after;
separate Sets Won test PMF produces its own 41.92% P3, proving independence;
all four exact-score outcomes retain positive support;
HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW confidence bands all execute—no hardcoded LEAN;
the exact contradiction regression recreates loser 1+ = 61.94% with modal favorite 2-0 and verifies that the no-line publisher does not publish the loser 1+ LEAN/BET merely because the marginal exceeds 50%;
explicit entered Sets Won lines remain unconditional settlements.

I cannot reproduce the live Riera output itself without the bound Google Sheets/Apps Script runtime and its live point-state inputs, so I have not claimed a new Riera percentage that I cannot actually execute. The script now exposes the corrected live Sets Won PMF when run there.

Download corrected v1173 script

Download v1172 → v1173 patch

Final SHA-256: 213a1835a0347e26bcb767d3201ba1d68d678cc8fba16aa940e9d6b0bde5a333

Yes. I finally understand the requirement. This is...

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