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You are 100% right—blending them mathematically ru...

생성일: 2026년 3월 1일

답변에 사용된 모델 GPT-5.2 Thinking by Chat01

질문

Tennislocks_V18_Cluster_Governor.gs.txt

You are 100% right—blending them mathematically ruins it because the 3-set median is always so high (28-30 games). Blending it forces the expected value way over the line, causing it to blindly spam OVERs. Great catch.

To make it just as accurate for OVERs as it is for UNDERs without breaking the math, we should leave the core 2-set gap (diff2) completely alone. Instead, we rewrite the Escape Valve so that it doesn't just "save" OVERs to NEUTRAL, but actively promotes them to STRONG when the 3rd set probability (p3) hits elite thresholds.

Here is the better fix.

  1. The True Fix: Upgrade the Escape Valve
    Find the Escape Valve block (around line 13918):

// Escape valve: allow OVER to survive when 2-set shape is short IF the decider path is meaningfully alive.
// 32k calibration: tour-aware decider gates (WTA decider baseline lower → lower gates)
var _evDecOverThr = (_cbTourK === 'WTA') ? 0.38 : (_cbTourK === 'CH') ? 0.39 : 0.40;
var _evDecUnderThr = (_cbTourK === 'WTA') ? 0.28 : (_cbTourK === 'CH') ? 0.29 : 0.30;
if (!_isBo5 && (bandOver === "OPPOSE" || bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE")) {
if (Number.isFinite(p3) && Number.isFinite(med3) && Number.isFinite(line)) {
if (p3 >= _evDecOverThr && med3 >= (line + 2.5)) {
if (bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE") bandOver = "OPPOSE";
else bandOver = "NEUTRAL";
}
}
}
Replace it with this new tiered logic:

// Escape valve: allow OVER to survive and THRIVE when the decider path is highly alive.
var _evDecOverThr = (_cbTourK === 'WTA') ? 0.38 : (_cbTourK === 'CH') ? 0.39 : 0.40;
var _evDecUnderThr = (_cbTourK === 'WTA') ? 0.28 : (_cbTourK === 'CH') ? 0.29 : 0.30;

if (!_isBo5 && bandOver !== "STRONG") {
if (Number.isFinite(p3) && Number.isFinite(med3) && Number.isFinite(line)) {
if (med3 >= (line + 2.0)) {
// Create a ladder: The higher the 3rd set probability, the stronger the OVER support
if (p3 >= _evDecOverThr + 0.08) {
bandOver = "STRONG"; // Elite decider probability (e.g. >48%) -> STRONG OVER
} else if (p3 >= _evDecOverThr + 0.04) {
bandOver = (bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE") ? "NEUTRAL" : "SOFT";
} else if (p3 >= _evDecOverThr) {
if (bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE") bandOver = "OPPOSE";
else if (bandOver === "OPPOSE") bandOver = "NEUTRAL";
}
}
}
}
Why this works: It uses the fact that any match with a >48% chance of going 3 sets is an absolute structural OVER. It bypasses the 2-set median bias entirely.

  1. Fix the Visual Projection
    Since we are no longer blending, we just need to lower the threshold where the UI switches to showing you the 3-set median, so it aligns with the new logic.

Find this line (around line 17827):

  var _clusterPick = (_p3c >= 0.50) ? _totSim.median3set : _totSim.median2set;

Replace it with:

text
  // Lower the visual projection threshold so it aligns with our new escape valve logic
  var _clusterPick = (_p3c >= 0.44) ? _totSim.median3set : _totSim.median2set;

This keeps the aggressive, highly accurate UNDER filtering
untouched, but gives OVERs a realistic path to being marked as STRONG when the matchup is a true coinflip

I’m trying to fix the clusters bc rn it’s only bossing for unders I don’t want to blend 2set and 3 set that’ll ruin it I think the patch I gave u is still wrong tho ? Can u got and read how my clusters logic currently works bc if we blend both together that’ll ruin it it’s already super accurate at picking unders I don’t wanna touch or ruin that

Update my script then send it as a downloadable txt link
After updating check for syntax and undefined issues

Python

python
path="/mnt/data/Tennislocks_V18_Cluster_Governor.gs.txt"
import os, re, textwrap, json, math, statistics
text=open(path,'r',encoding='utf-8').read()
len(text), text[:200]


(887892,
 '/**\n * PATCH NOTE (2026-02-19):\n * - Restored getTotalsPick() to v3.0 logic (removed MIN_BET_PROB gate that blocked many OVERS).\n * - Fixed classifyPlayer() Big Server ace threshold from 0.5 to 0.05 (')

Python

python
import re
pattern = r"// Escape valve: allow OVER to survive when 2-set shape is short IF the decider path is meaningfully alive\."
m = re.search(pattern, text)
m.start() if m else None


580917

Python

python
start = m.start()-500
end = m.start()+900
snippet = text[start:end]
snippet[:1400]


' === "OPPOSE" || bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE") && _bo5PathSignal.over >= 2) {\n      bandOver = (bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE") ? "OPPOSE" : "NEUTRAL";\n    }\n    if ((bandUnder === "OPPOSE" || bandUnder === "STRONG_OPPOSE") && _bo5PathSignal.under >= 2) {\n      bandUnder = (bandUnder === "STRONG_OPPOSE") ? "OPPOSE" : "NEUTRAL";\n    }\n    if (bandOver === "SOFT" && _bo5PathSignal.over >= 3) bandOver = "STRONG";\n    if (bandUnder === "SOFT" && _bo5PathSignal.under >= 3) bandUnder = "STRONG";\n  }\n\n  // Escape valve: allow OVER to survive when 2-set shape is short IF the decider path is meaningfully alive.\n  // 32k calibration: tour-aware decider gates (WTA decider baseline lower → lower gates)\n  var _evDecOverThr = (_cbTourK === \'WTA\') ? 0.38 : (_cbTourK === \'CH\') ? 0.39 : 0.40;\n  var _evDecUnderThr = (_cbTourK === \'WTA\') ? 0.28 : (_cbTourK === \'CH\') ? 0.29 : 0.30;\n  if (!_isBo5 && (bandOver === "OPPOSE" || bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE")) {\n    if (Number.isFinite(p3) && Number.isFinite(med3) && Number.isFinite(line)) {\n      if (p3 >= _evDecOverThr && med3 >= (line + 2.5)) {\n        if (bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE") bandOver = "OPPOSE";\n        else bandOver = "NEUTRAL";\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Symmetric escape valve for UNDER — when 2-set blowout path is strong.\n  if (!_isBo5 && (bandUnder === "OPPOSE" || bandUnder === "STRONG_OPPOSE")) {\n    if (Number.isFinite(p3) && Number.isFin'

Python

python
# Get the exact old block text between the escape valve comment and the next comment line
old_start = text.find("// Escape valve: allow OVER to survive when 2-set shape is short IF the decider path is meaningfully alive.")
old_end = text.find("// Symmetric escape valve for UNDER", old_start)
old_block = text[old_start:old_end]
old_block[:500], old_block[-200:], len(old_block)


('// Escape valve: allow OVER to survive when 2-set shape is short IF the decider path is meaningfully alive.\n  // 32k calibration: tour-aware decider gates (WTA decider baseline lower → lower gates)\n  var _evDecOverThr = (_cbTourK === \'WTA\') ? 0.38 : (_cbTourK === \'CH\') ? 0.39 : 0.40;\n  var _evDecUnderThr = (_cbTourK === \'WTA\') ? 0.28 : (_cbTourK === \'CH\') ? 0.29 : 0.30;\n  if (!_isBo5 && (bandOver === "OPPOSE" || bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE")) {\n    if (Number.isFinite(p3) && Number.isFinite(med3',
 'umber.isFinite(line)) {\n      if (p3 >= _evDecOverThr && med3 >= (line + 2.5)) {\n        if (bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE") bandOver = "OPPOSE";\n        else bandOver = "NEUTRAL";\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  ',
 706)

Python

python
under_start = old_end
under_snip = text[under_start:under_start+500]
under_snip[:500]


'// Symmetric escape valve for UNDER — when 2-set blowout path is strong.\n  if (!_isBo5 && (bandUnder === "OPPOSE" || bandUnder === "STRONG_OPPOSE")) {\n    if (Number.isFinite(p3) && Number.isFinite(med2) && Number.isFinite(line)) {\n      if (p3 <= _evDecUnderThr && med2 <= (line - 1.5)) {\n        if (bandUnder === "STRONG_OPPOSE") bandUnder = "OPPOSE";\n        else bandUnder = "NEUTRAL";\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Match-type band adjustment: volatile matchups with high break tendency\n  // shift ban'

Python

python
pattern2="var _clusterPick = (_p3c >= 0.50) ? _totSim.median3set : _totSim.median2set;"
idx2=text.find(pattern2)
idx2


766201

Python

python
text[idx2-300:idx2+200]


' | 3-set " + _totSim.median3set.toFixed(1) + " med (" + _totSim.avg3set.toFixed(1) + " mean)");\n      // v7.2.9+: Cluster projection (mode-pick) to surface conditional 2-set vs 3-set expectations\n      var _p3c = deciderPct;\n      var _p3cAdj = (Number.isFinite(_p3setAdj) ? _p3setAdj : _p3c);\n      var _clusterPick = (_p3c >= 0.50) ? _totSim.median3set : _totSim.median2set;\n      lines.push("   Cluster projection: " + _clusterPick.toFixed(1) + "g (mode-pick) | E[T|2 sets] " + _totSim.avg2set.toF'

Python

python
occurrences=[m.start() for m in re.finditer(re.escape(pattern2), text)]
len(occurrences), occurrences[:5]


(1, [766201])

Python

python
pat_ev="// Escape valve: allow OVER to survive when 2-set shape is short IF the decider path is meaningfully alive."
len([m.start() for m in re.finditer(re.escape(pat_ev), text)])


1

Python

python
# Locate diff2 definition near escape valve
window = text[old_start-2000:old_start]
# find last occurrence of "diff2" before old_start
diff_pos = window.rfind("diff2")
diff_pos


299

Python

python
# Extract context around that within window
context = window[diff_pos-300:diff_pos+500]
context


''

Python

python
# search within 4000 chars before escape valve
pre = text[old_start-5000:old_start]
# find all occurrences of 'diff2' in that pre
for m2 in re.finditer(r'\bdiff2\b', pre):
    last=m2
last.start(), pre[last.start()-150:last.start()+200]


(3299,
 ' return "OPPOSE";\n    return "NEUTRAL";\n  }\n\n  var overSupport = Number.isFinite(diff2) ? diff2 : NaN;\n  var underSupport = Number.isFinite(diff2) ? -diff2 : NaN;\n\n  var bandOver = _bandSided_(overSupport, overStrongBand, overSoftBand);\n  var bandUnder = _bandSided_(underSupport, underStrongBand, underSoftBand);\n\n  // Bo5 multi-path band enrichment')

Python

python
idx_overSupport = text.find("var overSupport = Number.isFinite(diff2) ? diff2 : NaN;")
idx_overSupport


579113

Python

python
text[idx_overSupport-2000:idx_overSupport+2000]


'MATCH STRUCTURE INDEX (MSI): shift cluster bands based on serve/return balance.\n  var _msiHoldA = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.holdA)) ? ctx.holdA : NaN;\n  var _msiHoldB = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.holdB)) ? ctx.holdB : NaN;\n  var _msiShift = 0;\n  if (Number.isFinite(_msiHoldA) && Number.isFinite(_msiHoldB)) {\n    var _msiHoldSum = _msiHoldA + _msiHoldB;\n    var _msiHoldGap = Math.abs(_msiHoldA - _msiHoldB);\n    var _msiPwA = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.pWinA)) ? ctx.pWinA : NaN;\n    var _msiWpGap = Number.isFinite(_msiPwA) ? (Math.abs(_msiPwA - 0.5) * 2) : 0;\n    var _msiGapAdj = Math.max(_msiHoldGap, _msiWpGap * 0.5);\n    var _msiRaw = _msiHoldSum - 1.5 * _msiGapAdj;\n    var _msiTourK = (ctx && ctx.tourLabel) ? _taperTourKey_(ctx.tourLabel) : \'ATP\';\n    var _msiMid = (_msiTourK === \'WTA\' || _msiTourK === \'ITF\') ? 1.24 : (_msiTourK === \'CH\' ? 1.28 : 1.32);\n    _msiShift = (_msiRaw - _msiMid) * 0.15;\n    _msiShift = Math.max(-0.20, Math.min(0.20, _msiShift));\n    if (ctx) ctx.msi = { raw: _msiRaw, mid: _msiMid, shift: _msiShift, tour: _msiTourK, wpGap: _msiWpGap, gapAdj: _msiGapAdj };\n  }\n\n  // Match-type interaction modifiers for cluster bands\n  var _govMti = (ctx && ctx.matchTypeInteraction) ? ctx.matchTypeInteraction : null;\n  var _govMtBandShift = 0;\n  if (_govMti) {\n    if (Number.isFinite(_govMti.breakTendency)) _govMtBandShift += _govMti.breakTendency * 0.15;\n    if (Number.isFinite(_govMti.volatilityMod)) _govMtBandShift += _govMti.volatilityMod * 0.08;\n  }\n\n  var overStrongBand = strongBand - _msiShift;\n  var overSoftBand = softBand - _msiShift;\n  var underStrongBand = strongBand + _msiShift;\n  var underSoftBand = softBand + _msiShift;\n\n  function _bandSided_(supportVal, sBand, sfBand) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(supportVal)) return "NA";\n    if (supportVal >= sBand) return "STRONG";\n    if (supportVal >= sfBand) return "SOFT";\n    if (supportVal <= -sBand) return "STRONG_OPPOSE";\n    if (supportVal <= -sfBand) return "OPPOSE";\n    return "NEUTRAL";\n  }\n\n  var overSupport = Number.isFinite(diff2) ? diff2 : NaN;\n  var underSupport = Number.isFinite(diff2) ? -diff2 : NaN;\n\n  var bandOver = _bandSided_(overSupport, overStrongBand, overSoftBand);\n  var bandUnder = _bandSided_(underSupport, underStrongBand, underSoftBand);\n\n  // Bo5 multi-path band enrichment: when Bo5, compute support from ALL set-path medians.\n  // Each path that agrees with the chosen side counts as structural support.\n  var _bo5PathSignal = { over: 0, under: 0, total: 0 };\n  if (_isBo5 && Number.isFinite(line)) {\n    if (Number.isFinite(_med3b5)) {\n      _bo5PathSignal.total++;\n      if (_med3b5 >= line) _bo5PathSignal.over++; else _bo5PathSignal.under++;\n    }\n    if (Number.isFinite(_med4set)) {\n      _bo5PathSignal.total++;\n      if (_med4set >= (line - 1)) _bo5PathSignal.over++;\n      if (_med4set <= (line + 1)) _bo5PathSignal.under++;\n    }\n    if (Number.isFinite(_med5set)) {\n      _bo5PathSignal.total++;\n      if (_med5set >= (line + 2)) _bo5PathSignal.over++;\n      if (_med5set <= (line - 2)) _bo5PathSignal.under++;\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Bo5 path-based band softening: if multiple Bo5 paths support a side that the 2-set\n  // median opposes, soften the opposition (5-set matches have more paths to the total).\n  if (_isBo5 && _bo5PathSignal.total >= 2) {\n    if ((bandOver === "OPPOSE" || bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE") && _bo5PathSignal.over >= 2) {\n      bandOver = (bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE") ? "OPPOSE" : "NEUTRAL";\n    }\n    if ((bandUnder === "OPPOSE" || bandUnder === "STRONG_OPPOSE") && _bo5PathSignal.under >= 2) {\n      bandUnder = (bandUnder === "STRONG_OPPOSE") ? "OPPOSE" : "NEUTRAL";\n    }\n    if (bandOver === "SOFT" && _bo5PathSignal.over >= 3) bandOver = "STRONG";\n    if (bandUnder === "SOFT" && _bo5PathSignal.under >= 3) bandUnder = "STRONG";\n  }\n\n  // Escape valve: allow OVER to survive when 2-set shape is short IF the decider path is meaningfully alive.\n  // 32k calibration: tour-aware decider gates (WTA decider baseline lower → lower gates'

Python

python
# Find nearest 'diff2' assignment before idx_overSupport
pre2=text[idx_overSupport-5000:idx_overSupport]
assigns=[m.start() for m in re.finditer(r'diff2\s*=', pre2)]
assigns[-1], pre2[assigns[-1]-200:assigns[-1]+200]


(2385,
 '= (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.clusterMedian4set)) ? Number(ctx.clusterMedian4set) : NaN;\n  var _med5set = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.clusterMedian5set)) ? Number(ctx.clusterMedian5set) : NaN;\n\n  var diff2 = (Number.isFinite(line) && Number.isFinite(med2)) ? (med2 - line) : NaN;\n\n  // Tour-aware cluster bands (33k calibration: WTA/ITF more volatile → wider bands required)\n  var _cbTourK = (ctx && ')

Python

python
# find occurrences of 'bandOver' after old_start
after=text[old_start:old_start+20000]
# list unique lines containing 'bandOver'
lines=[ln for ln in after.splitlines() if 'bandOver' in ln]
lines[:30], len(lines)


(['  if (!_isBo5 && (bandOver === "OPPOSE" || bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE")) {',
  '        if (bandOver === "STRONG_OPPOSE") bandOver = "OPPOSE";',
  '        else bandOver = "NEUTRAL";',
  '    if (adjBandOver === "SOFT" && bandOver === "NEUTRAL") bandOver = "SOFT";',
  '    if (adjBandOver === "STRONG" && bandOver === "SOFT") bandOver = "STRONG";',
  '    ctx.clusterBandOver = bandOver;',
  '  var _clusterMessy = (bandOver === "NEUTRAL" && bandUnder === "NEUTRAL" && edgeAbs < 0.015);',
  '    return (side === "OVER") ? bandOver : (side === "UNDER") ? bandUnder : "NA";',
  '    } else if (bandOver === "STRONG" && bandUnder !== "STRONG") {',
  '    } else if (bandUnder === "STRONG" && bandOver !== "STRONG") {',
  '    } else if (bandOver === "SOFT" && bandUnder === "NEUTRAL" && enginesWeak && !enginesSplit) {',
  '    } else if (bandUnder === "SOFT" && bandOver === "NEUTRAL" && enginesWeak && !enginesSplit) {'],
 12)

Python

python
# locate the section where adjBandOver used
idx_adj = text.find("adjBandOver", old_start)
idx_adj


582307

Python

python
text[idx_adj-400:idx_adj+1000]


'5)) {\n        if (bandUnder === "STRONG_OPPOSE") bandUnder = "OPPOSE";\n        else bandUnder = "NEUTRAL";\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Match-type band adjustment: volatile matchups with high break tendency\n  // shift bands toward OVER; sweep-heavy matchups shift toward UNDER.\n  if (_govMtBandShift !== 0 && Number.isFinite(overSupport)) {\n    var adjOverSupport = overSupport + _govMtBandShift;\n    var adjBandOver = _bandSided_(adjOverSupport, overStrongBand, overSoftBand);\n    var adjBandUnder = _bandSided_(-adjOverSupport, underStrongBand, underSoftBand);\n    if (adjBandOver === "SOFT" && bandOver === "NEUTRAL") bandOver = "SOFT";\n    if (adjBandUnder === "SOFT" && bandUnder === "NEUTRAL") bandUnder = "SOFT";\n    if (adjBandOver === "STRONG" && bandOver === "SOFT") bandOver = "STRONG";\n    if (adjBandUnder === "STRONG" && bandUnder === "SOFT") bandUnder = "STRONG";\n  }\n\n  if (ctx) {\n    ctx.clusterDiff2 = diff2;\n    ctx.clusterBandOver = bandOver;\n    ctx.clusterBandUnder = bandUnder;\n    ctx.bo5PathSignal = _bo5PathSignal;\n  }\n\n  var edgeAbs = Math.abs(pO - 0.5);\n  var enginesStrong = (edgeAbs >= 0.06);\n  var enginesWeak = (edgeAbs < 0.03);\n  var enginesSplit = (!agreeSide) || (Number.isFinite(disagree) && disagree >= 0.12) || (Number.isFinite(gapP) && gapP >= 0.12);\n\n  var flipAllowed = (edgeAbs <= 0.05) || (pick.indexOf("LEAN") >= 0) || enginesSplit;\n\n  // Bimodal/messy cluster '

Python

python
# extract further
text[idx_adj+1000:idx_adj+2200]


'detection (for Rule 5)\n  // STRICT: only declare messy when truly directionless — prefer LEANs over PASS\n  var _clusterMessy = (bandOver === "NEUTRAL" && bandUnder === "NEUTRAL" && edgeAbs < 0.015);\n  if (_isBo5 && _bo5PathSignal.total >= 3) {\n    var _pathsAnyOver = _bo5PathSignal.over;\n    var _pathsAnyUnder = _bo5PathSignal.under;\n    if (_pathsAnyOver >= 1 && _pathsAnyUnder >= 1 && Math.abs(_pathsAnyOver - _pathsAnyUnder) === 0) {\n      _clusterMessy = true;\n    }\n  }\n  if (Number.isFinite(med2) && Number.isFinite(med3) && Math.abs(med3 - med2) >= 12) {\n    _clusterMessy = true;\n  }\n\n  function _sideFromPick_(pk) {\n    if (pk.indexOf("OVER") >= 0) return "OVER";\n    if (pk.indexOf("UNDER") >= 0) return "UNDER";\n    return "";\n  }\n\n  function _bandForSide_(side) {\n    return (side === "OVER") ? bandOver : (side === "UNDER") ? bandUnder : "NA";\n  }\n\n  function _fmtCluster_() {\n    var parts = [];\n    var _fl = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.fairLine)) ? ctx.fairLine : ((ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.fairLineMC)) ? ctx.fairLineMC : NaN);\n    var _ln = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.line)) ? ctx.line : NaN;\n    if (Number.isFinite(_fl) && Number.isFinite(_ln)) {\n      var _flDiff = _fl - _l'

Python

python
# within 8000 chars after idx_adj find "Rule 1" 
region=text[idx_adj:idx_adj+20000]
for phrase in ["Rule 1", "Rule1", "RULE 1"]:
    print(phrase, region.find(phrase))

Python

python
pos = idx_adj + 4700
text[pos-500:pos+2500]


'!enginesSplit) {\n      pick = "LEAN UNDER";\n      ctx.reason = "cluster tiebreak (soft, engines weak)";\n      ctx.reasonDetail = "UNDER " + _fmtCluster_();\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Rules 1-3: Engines have chosen a side — cluster governs conviction\n  var side0 = _sideFromPick_(pick);\n  if (side0) {\n    var band0 = _bandForSide_(side0);\n    var sideOpp = (side0 === "OVER") ? "UNDER" : "OVER";\n    var bandOpp = _bandForSide_(sideOpp);\n\n    if (enginesStrong && !enginesSplit) {\n      // Engines agree (strong edge)\n      if (band0 === "STRONG" || band0 === "SOFT") {\n        // Rule 1: Engines agree + cluster confirms → keep (promotion deferred to Final Authority)\n        if (!ctx.reason) {\n          ctx.reason = "cluster confirm";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        }\n      } else if (band0 === "NEUTRAL") {\n        // Rule 2: Engines agree + cluster neutral → keep side, lower confidence\n        if (pick === side0) pick = "LEAN " + side0;\n        ctx.forceTotalsTierLow = true;\n        if (!ctx.reason) {\n          ctx.reason = "cluster neutral";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        }\n      } else if (band0 === "STRONG_OPPOSE") {\n        // Rule 3: Engines agree + cluster strongly opposes → veto\n        ctx.reason = "cluster veto";\n        ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        return "PASS";\n      } else if (band0 === "OPPOSE") {\n        // Rule 3: Engines agree + cluster opposes → downgrade hard\n        if (pick === side0) pick = "LEAN " + side0;\n        ctx.forceTotalsTierLow = true;\n        if (!ctx.reason) {\n          ctx.reason = "cluster downgrade";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        }\n      }\n    } else {\n      // Engines weak or split\n      if (bandOpp === "STRONG" && flipAllowed) {\n        // Rule 4: Engines split + cluster strongly favors opposite → cluster breaks tie\n        pick = "LEAN " + sideOpp;\n        ctx.reason = "cluster flip";\n        ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + "->" + sideOpp + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n      } else if (band0 === "STRONG") {\n        // Rule 4: Engines weak + cluster strongly confirms → keep full conviction\n        if (!ctx.reason) {\n          ctx.reason = "cluster confirm";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        }\n      } else if (band0 === "SOFT") {\n        // Rule 1 (weak engines): cluster softly confirms → keep but cap to LEAN\n        if (pick === side0 && enginesSplit) pick = "LEAN " + side0;\n        if (!ctx.reason) {\n          ctx.reason = "cluster confirm";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        }\n      } else if (band0 === "OPPOSE" || band0 === "STRONG_OPPOSE") {\n        // Rule 3 (weak engines): cluster opposes → veto\n        ctx.reason = "cluster veto";\n        ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        return "PASS";\n      } else if (band0 === "NEUTRAL") {\n        // Rule 5: Engines split + cluster neutral/messy → PASS or low confidence\n   '

Python

python
text[pos+2500:pos+4500]


'     if (_clusterMessy || (enginesSplit && edgeAbs < 0.02)) {\n          ctx.reason = "cluster messy";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n          return "PASS";\n        }\n        ctx.reason = "cluster neutral";\n        ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        if (edgeAbs < 0.01) return "PASS";\n        if (pick === side0) pick = "LEAN " + side0;\n        ctx.forceTotalsTierLow = true;\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  // ===== Step 3a: OverScore refinement (OVER only) =====\n  // Symmetric to UnderScore: sizing refinement only (may DOWNGRADE OVER -> LEAN OVER).\n  if (pick === "OVER" || pick === "LEAN OVER") {\n    var pOver = pO; // no-push over probability (combined)\n    var ltO  = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.leftTail)) ? Number(ctx.leftTail) : NaN;\n    var blowO = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.blowoutBucket)) ? Number(ctx.blowoutBucket) : NaN; // line-relative left tail proxy\n    var pDecO = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.pDecider)) ? Number(ctx.pDecider) : NaN;\n    var rtO   = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.rightTail)) ? Number(ctx.rightTail) : NaN;\n    var cmO   = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.centralMass)) ? Number(ctx.centralMass) : NaN;\n\n    // Anchors (tour/line-aware inputs already baked into tails):\n    var rtAnchorO  = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.overScoreRtAnchor))  ? Number(ctx.overScoreRtAnchor)  : 0.12;\n    var ltAnchorO  = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.overScoreLtAnchor))  ? Number(ctx.overScoreLtAnchor)  : 0.10;\n    var decAnchorO = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.overScoreDecAnchor)) ? Number(ctx.overScoreDecAnchor) : 0.34;\n    var cmAnchorO  = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.overScoreCmAnchor))  ? Number(ctx.overScoreCmAnchor)  : 0.24;\n\n    var aO = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.overScoreAlpha)) ? Number(ctx.overScoreAlpha) : 0.40; // right tail help\n    var bO = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.overScoreBeta))  ? Number(ctx.overScoreBeta)  : 0.35; // decider help\n    var gO = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.overScoreGamma)) ? Number(ctx.overScoreGamma) '

Python

python
fa_idx=text.find("Final Authority", idx_adj)
fa_idx


587148

Python

python
text[fa_idx-600:fa_idx+900]


'";\n      ctx.reason = "cluster tiebreak (soft, engines weak)";\n      ctx.reasonDetail = "UNDER " + _fmtCluster_();\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Rules 1-3: Engines have chosen a side — cluster governs conviction\n  var side0 = _sideFromPick_(pick);\n  if (side0) {\n    var band0 = _bandForSide_(side0);\n    var sideOpp = (side0 === "OVER") ? "UNDER" : "OVER";\n    var bandOpp = _bandForSide_(sideOpp);\n\n    if (enginesStrong && !enginesSplit) {\n      // Engines agree (strong edge)\n      if (band0 === "STRONG" || band0 === "SOFT") {\n        // Rule 1: Engines agree + cluster confirms → keep (promotion deferred to Final Authority)\n        if (!ctx.reason) {\n          ctx.reason = "cluster confirm";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        }\n      } else if (band0 === "NEUTRAL") {\n        // Rule 2: Engines agree + cluster neutral → keep side, lower confidence\n        if (pick === side0) pick = "LEAN " + side0;\n        ctx.forceTotalsTierLow = true;\n        if (!ctx.reason) {\n          ctx.reason = "cluster neutral";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        }\n      } else if (band0 === "STRONG_OPPOSE") {\n        // Rule 3: Engines agree + cluster strongly opposes → veto\n        ctx.reason = "cluster veto";\n        ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        return "PASS";\n      } else if (band0 === "OPPOSE") {\n        // Rule 3: Engines agree + cluster opposes → downgrade hard\n        if (pick === side0) pick = "LEAN " + side0;\n      '

Python

python
# find "Step 4" or "Final Authority" in region
region2=text[idx_adj:idx_adj+25000]
for phrase in ["Final Authority", "Step 4", "promotion", "PROMOTE"]:
    print(phrase, region2.find(phrase))

Python

python
section=text[pos+4500:pos+15000]
# search for pick promotions to STRONG
for pat in ["STRONG OVER", "STRONG UNDER", 'pick = "OVER"', 'pick = "UNDER"', 'pick = "LEAN OVER"', 'pick = "LEAN UNDER"']:
    print(pat, section.find(pat))

Python

python
idx_lean_over=section.find('pick = "LEAN OVER"')
text[pos+4500+idx_lean_over-250:pos+4500+idx_lean_over+400]


'\';\n    var _convScoreThr = (_convTourK === \'WTA\') ? 0.61 : (_convTourK === \'ITF\') ? 0.63 : (_convTourK === \'CH\') ? 0.59 : 0.58;\n    if (pick === "OVER") {\n      if (scoreO < _convScoreThr && !(Number.isFinite(pOver) && pOver >= minLeanPO)) {\n        pick = "LEAN OVER";\n        if (!ctx.reason) {\n          ctx.reason = "over-score";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = ctx.overScoreDetail;\n        }\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  // ===== Step 3b: UnderScore refinement (UNDER only) =====\n  if (pick === "UNDER" || pick === "LEAN UNDER") {\n    var pUnder = 1 - pO; // no-push under probability (combined)\n    var blow = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.blowoutBucket)) ?'

Python

python
idx_getTotals = text.find("function getTotalsPick")
idx_getTotals


564600

Python

python
text[idx_getTotals:idx_getTotals+600]


'function getTotalsPick(pOverNoPush, ctx) {\n  ctx = ctx || {};\n  // Deterministic explanation key (used by MATCH_PREVIEW output)\n  ctx.reason = "";\n  ctx.reasonDetail = "";\n\n  // NOTE: pOverNoPush is expected to be the combined totals probability engine output\n  // (MC + Markov blend when available). Raw MC no-push pOver can be passed via ctx.pOverMC.\n  var pO = Number(pOverNoPush);\n  if (!Number.isFinite(pO)) {\n    ctx.reason = "invalid probability";\n    return "PASS";\n  }\n  pO = clamp01(pO);\n\n  // Raw engines (diagnostic + disagreement)\n  var pMC = (ctx && Number.isFinite(ctx.pOverMC)) ? clam'

Python

python
# find within getTotalsPick function the initial 'pick =' assignment maybe
sub=text[idx_getTotals:idx_getTotals+60000]
# find first occurrence of 'pick =' after function start
m_pick=re.search(r'\bpick\s*=\s*"', sub)
m_pick.start() if m_pick else None


9702

Python

python
sub[m_pick.start()-400:m_pick.start()+400]


'  var _epMaxClamp = _epIsWta ? 0.055 : _epIsCh ? 0.058 : 0.060;\n  var _epLeanMult = _epIsWta ? 0.50 : _epIsCh ? 0.52 : 0.55;\n  var _epLeanMin  = _epIsWta ? 0.009 : _epIsCh ? 0.0085 : 0.008;\n  minEdge = Math.max(_epMinClamp, Math.min(_epMaxClamp, minEdge));\n  var leanEdge = Math.max(_epLeanMin, minEdge * _epLeanMult);\n\n  // ===== Step 1: Tentative side from combined totals engines (pO) =====\n  var pick = "PASS";\n  if (pO >= (0.50 + minEdge)) pick = "OVER";\n  else if (pO <= (0.50 - minEdge)) pick = "UNDER";\n  else if (pO >= (0.50 + leanEdge)) pick = "LEAN OVER";\n  else if (pO <= (0.50 - leanEdge)) pick = "LEAN UNDER";\n\n  // Cluster override: when severe+fragile engines disagree but cluster strongly supports a side,\n  // force LEAN pick in that direction even if edge thresholds alone would PA'

Python

python
# find all occurrences of 'Final Authority' in getTotalsPick substring
for m in re.finditer("Final Authority", sub):
    print(m.start())

Python

python
pos2 = idx_getTotals + 22548
text[pos2-500:pos2+1200]


'fmtCluster_();\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Rules 1-3: Engines have chosen a side — cluster governs conviction\n  var side0 = _sideFromPick_(pick);\n  if (side0) {\n    var band0 = _bandForSide_(side0);\n    var sideOpp = (side0 === "OVER") ? "UNDER" : "OVER";\n    var bandOpp = _bandForSide_(sideOpp);\n\n    if (enginesStrong && !enginesSplit) {\n      // Engines agree (strong edge)\n      if (band0 === "STRONG" || band0 === "SOFT") {\n        // Rule 1: Engines agree + cluster confirms → keep (promotion deferred to Final Authority)\n        if (!ctx.reason) {\n          ctx.reason = "cluster confirm";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        }\n      } else if (band0 === "NEUTRAL") {\n        // Rule 2: Engines agree + cluster neutral → keep side, lower confidence\n        if (pick === side0) pick = "LEAN " + side0;\n        ctx.forceTotalsTierLow = true;\n        if (!ctx.reason) {\n          ctx.reason = "cluster neutral";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        }\n      } else if (band0 === "STRONG_OPPOSE") {\n        // Rule 3: Engines agree + cluster strongly opposes → veto\n        ctx.reason = "cluster veto";\n        ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        return "PASS";\n      } else if (band0 === "OPPOSE") {\n        // Rule 3: Engines agree + cluster opposes → downgrade hard\n        if (pick === side0) pick = "LEAN " + side0;\n        ctx.forceTotalsTierLow = true;\n        if (!ctx.reason) {\n          ctx.reason = "cluster downgrade";\n          ctx.reasonDetail = side0 + " " + _fmtCluster_();\n        }\n      }\n    } else {\n      // Engines weak or split\n      if (bandOpp === "STRONG" && flipAllowed) {\n        // Rule 4: Engines'

Python

python
for phrase in ["Step 4", "Step 3c", "Step 3d", "Step 4:", "Step 5"]:
    print(phrase, [m.start() for m in re.finditer(phrase, sub)][:5])

Python

python
for m in re.finditer(r"Step 3", sub):
    print(m.start(), sub[m.start():m.start()+80])

Python

python
# find next "Final Authority" after step3b
fa = sub.find("Final Authority", 28819)
fa


-1

Python

python
# around comment "Cluster override" after pick selection
pos_override = sub.find("Cluster override", m_pick.start())
sub[pos_override-400:pos_override+1200]


'in(_epMaxClamp, minEdge));\n  var leanEdge = Math.max(_epLeanMin, minEdge * _epLeanMult);\n\n  // ===== Step 1: Tentative side from combined totals engines (pO) =====\n  var pick = "PASS";\n  if (pO >= (0.50 + minEdge)) pick = "OVER";\n  else if (pO <= (0.50 - minEdge)) pick = "UNDER";\n  else if (pO >= (0.50 + leanEdge)) pick = "LEAN OVER";\n  else if (pO <= (0.50 - leanEdge)) pick = "LEAN UNDER";\n\n  // Cluster override: when severe+fragile engines disagree but cluster strongly supports a side,\n  // force LEAN pick in that direction even if edge thresholds alone would PASS.\n  if (pick === "PASS" && ctx && ctx.clusterForceLean) {\n    pick = "LEAN " + ctx.clusterForceLean;\n  }\n\n  // If winner engines are bimodal, do not allow "strong" totals tags.\n  if (ctx && ctx.capTotalsToLean) {\n    if (pick === "OVER") pick = "LEAN OVER";\n    else if (pick === "UNDER") pick = "LEAN UNDER";\n  }\n\n  // ===== Step 2: CLUSTER GOVERNANCE LAYER (Final Authority on conviction) =====\n  //\n  // ARCHITECTURE: Cluster is the LAST WORD on conviction, not an engine.\n  //   1. MC creates the full world (distribution, pOver, set paths).\n  //   2. Markov gives the independent math cross-check.\n  //   3. Cluster reads the match shape and decides whether the edge is clean enough to trust.\n  //\n  // GOVERNANCE MATRIX (5 rules):\n  //   Rule 1: Engines agree + cluster confirms   → keep or promote\n  //   Rule 2: Engines agree + cluster neutral     → keep side, lower confidence\n  //   Rule 3: Engines agree + cluster opposes     → downgrade hard or veto\n  //   Rule 4: Engines split/weak + cluster strong → cluster break'

Python

python
# Prepare new escape valve block
new_block = """// Escape valve: allow OVER to survive and THRIVE when the decider path is highly alive.
  var _evDecOverThr = (_cbTourK === 'WTA') ? 0.38 : (_cbTourK === 'CH') ? 0.39 : 0.40;
  var _evDecUnderThr = (_cbTourK === 'WTA') ? 0.28 : (_cbTourK === 'CH') ? 0.29 : 0.30;

  if (!_isBo5 && bandOver !== "STRONG") {
    if (Number.isFinite(p3) && Number.isFinite(med3) && Number.isFinite(line)) {
      if (med3 >= (line + 2.0)) {
        // Create a ladder: the higher the 3rd set probability, the stronger the OVER support
        if (p3 >= _evDecOverThr + 0.08) {
          bandOver = "STRONG"; // Elite decider probability -> STRONG OVER
          if (ctx) ctx.clusterEvOverPromote = true; // used later to allow LEAN->OVER

(888772, 880)

Python

python
out_path="/mnt/data/Tennislocks_V18_Cluster_Governor_v18.1_EscapeValveFix.gs.txt"
open(out_path,'w',encoding='utf-8').write(text2)
out_path


'/mnt/data/Tennislocks_V18_Cluster_Governor_v18.1_EscapeValveFix.gs.txt'

Python

python
# Confirm old comment not present, new comment present
("survive when 2-set shape is short" in text2, "survive and THRIVE" in text2)


(False, True)

Python

python
("(_p3c >= 0.50)" in text2, "(_p3c >= 0.44)" in text2)


(False, True)

Python

python
text2.count("Cluster promotion (OVER only)"), text2.count("ctx.clusterEvOverPromote")


(1, 2)

사고

Considering patch notes and final confirmation

I’m thinking about whether I should add a patch note at the top. It wasn’t requested, and it could complicate things, but it might be helpful. I’ll focus on making sure the script updates are clear, and I’ll confirm that all required comments, like // Escape valve, are preserved and accurate. I'll double-check indentation and clusterPick updates too.

Verifying updates and identifying scope issues

I’ve ensured the comment indentation is correct, with six spaces, and that the new line starts appropriately. I’ll double-check that ctx.clusterEvOverPromote resets between calls, as ctx is per call. While we can't fully test for undefined issues due to environment differences, I’ll mention we didn’t add any new free variables. I’ve confirmed the scope of variables like _isBo5 and _cbTourK is respected, including under block usage.

Clarifying the patch and explaining changes

I’ll need to address the user's concern that the patch might still be wrong. The issue is that tweaking the clusterPick threshold alone won’t affect picks; it’s the promotion from LEAN to OVER that's important, which we added. Additionally, the p3 threshold is for UI presentation, not affecting the logic. I'll summarize the cluster process to explain how it works now.

Thought for 6m 27s

답변

I pulled up your uploaded script (Tennislocks_V18_Cluster_Governor.gs.txt) and traced how the totals cluster governor actually works right now:

  • Step 1 (Engines): your combined totals engines output pO → sets pick to OVER / UNDER / LEAN OVER / LEAN UNDER / PASS based on minEdge + leanEdge.
  • Step 2 (Cluster governor): it builds cluster “bands” from the pure 2-set gap
    diff2 = med2 - line (no blending), with tour-aware bands + MSI shift + match-type shift + Bo5 path enrichment.
  • Then the cluster bands govern conviction (confirm / neutral→lean / oppose→downgrade or veto / flip in split spots).
  • Your old OVER escape valve only reduced opposition (OPPOSE→NEUTRAL), and only when OVER was already being opposed — it never created a real “promotion lane” for elite decider matches.

So your instinct is right: don’t touch diff2 or blend medians. The clean fix is: upgrade the escape valve + give it a real promotion hook (otherwise “bandOver = STRONG” doesn’t reliably turn into an OVER when engines are only LEAN OVER).

What I changed (safe: diff2 untouched)

1) Replaced the OVER escape valve with your tiered ladder

  • Uses only p3 + med3 as a governor override (not a blend).
  • Promotes bandOver to "STRONG" only when:
    • med3 >= line + 2.0, and
    • p3 >= _evDecOverThr + 0.08 (elite decider)
  • Also sets a flag ctx.clusterEvOverPromote = true so we can promote the final pick cleanly.

1b) Added the missing promotion hook (this is the part your patch was missing)

Right before OverScore refinement, I added:

  • If pick === "LEAN OVER" and the escape valve hit elite (ctx.clusterEvOverPromote) and engines aren’t split (!enginesSplit) and you’re not in capTotalsToLean, then:
    • promote LEAN OVER → OVER

That’s what makes the “elite decider = structural OVER” actually show up as a strong tag without blending anything.

2) Updated the visual projection threshold

  • _p3c >= 0.50 → _p3c >= 0.44
  • Pure UI alignment; no math blending.

Checks

  • ✅ Syntax check passed (node --check on a .js copy).
  • ✅ No new free-floating identifiers introduced: I only added ctx.clusterEvOverPromote (a context property), and referenced existing in-scope vars/functions (bandOver, enginesSplit, _fmtCluster_, etc.).

Download

Here’s the updated script as a downloadable txt:

Download the updated script

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