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I added this updated your script and saved it as...

作成日: 2026年4月20日

使用モデル GPT-5.4 Thinking by Chat01

質問

Tennislocks_updated.txt

I added this

updated your script and saved it as a downloadable txt file based on the uploaded Tennislocks.txt script. (Tennislocks.txt)

What I changed:

Added a 3-set consistency guard so borderline 3-set leans get downgraded to 2 sets or PASS when 2-set probability is clearly ahead and there is no strong structural override.
Kept legitimate 3-set spots alive only when backed by strong bimodal geometry, model agreement, or a locked 3-set archetype.
Rewrote the misleading read text so it no longer says “3-set lane is live despite the 2-set probability lead” in a way that sounds self-contradictory.
Download the updated script here: Tennislocks_updated.txt

Main patch points:

probability/structure consistency guard added in the sets decision block
output text changed to a cleaner geometry-vs-probability explanation
But nothing actually changed lol u have to change logic

I added this but im still getting a lean 3 sets the root issues are deep gates don’t work stop making them

4/20/2026 7:24:16
⚠️ MARKET ANCHOR APPLIED: Model vs market diverged by 3.6 pts. Pulled 4% toward market.

════════════════════════════════════════
🎾 TENNISLOCKS v1.0 🎾
[ᴠᴇʀѕɪᴏɴ] ᴠ1.0 | 2026-04-20ᴛ14:23:50.369ᴢ
ᴛᴏᴛᴀʟѕ ѕɪᴍѕ: 12,000 | ɢᴇɴᴇʀᴀᴛᴇᴅ: 9:23:55 ᴀᴍ
════════════════════════════════════════

⚠️ MARKET ANCHOR — Model diverged 3.6pt from market. Pulled 4% toward market.

🎯 ATP Masters 1000 Madrid (RIGHT) (Clay (OUTDOOR)) | Best of 3 | Line: 22.5
ᴄᴘɪ: 36 | ᴛᴏᴜʀ: ᴀᴛᴘ (ʀɪɢʜᴛ) (ʜɪɢʜ)

────────────────────────────────────────
Rei Sakamoto vs Zachary Svajda
────────────────────────────────────────

🎲 Total Games Projection: 24.2 (mixture median) | EV 24.2 | lands ~20g or ~30g
ᴅᴇᴄɪᴅᴇʀ ᴘʀᴏʙ: 50% | ᴀᴅᴊ 42% | ʀᴀᴡ 41%
ᴍᴀᴛᴄʜ ᴄʟᴜѕᴛᴇʀѕ: 2-ѕᴇᴛ ᴍᴇᴅɪᴀɴ 20.0ɢ (ᴍᴇᴀɴ 19.9) | 3-ѕᴇᴛ ᴍᴇᴅɪᴀɴ 30.0ɢ (ᴍᴇᴀɴ 30.0)
ʙɪᴍᴏᴅᴀʟ ꜰᴀɪʀ ʟɪɴᴇ: 24.2ɢ (ᴍɪˣᴛᴜʀᴇ ᴍᴇᴅɪᴀɴ) | 2-ѕᴇᴛ ᴍᴏᴅᴇ: 19.9ɢ | 3-ѕᴇᴛ ᴍᴏᴅᴇ: 30.0ɢ

========================================
⚠️ CAUTION — ELO DISAGREEMENT: Elo disagrees with Model+Stats
ᴍᴏᴅᴇʟ ʟᴇᴀɴ: ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ — ᴀɢʀᴇᴇ: ᴇʟᴏ (35.7%) | ᴅɪѕᴀɢʀᴇᴇ: ᴍᴏᴅᴇʟ (57.6%) + ѕᴛᴀᴛѕ (67.2%)
ɴᴏ ʙᴇᴛ — ᴍᴏᴅᴇʟ ʟᴇᴀɴ ᴏɴʟʏ, ᴇʟᴏ ɪѕ ᴛʜᴇ ᴏᴜᴛʟɪᴇʀ ѕɪɢɴᴀʟ

📊 MATCH WINNER
────────────────────────────────────────
ᴘʟᴀʏᴇʀ ᴍʟ ᴍᴋᴛ% ᴍᴏᴅᴇʟ% ʀᴀᴡ% ᴇᴅɢᴇ ʙᴀʀ
ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ +107 45.7% 72.9% 72.9% +27.2% ███████░░░
ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ -131 54.3% 27.1% 27.1% -27.2% ███░░░░░░░
┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄
ʙʟᴇɴᴅ ᴍᴄ 57.6% | ѕᴛᴀᴛѕ 67.2% | ᴇʟᴏ 35.7% ⚠️ ᴄᴏɴꜰʟɪᴄᴛ | ʀᴇʟɪᴀʙɪʟɪᴛʏ: 48%
ʀᴀᴡ ᴇɴɢɪɴᴇ: 27.1% → ᴘɪᴄᴋ: 27.1% (ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ) | ᴅɪѕᴘʟᴀʏ: 51.7%
ᴀɴᴄʜᴏʀ 4% ᴀᴘᴘʟɪᴇᴅ (ᴍᴀʀᴋᴇᴛ ᴀɴᴄʜᴏʀ 4ᴘᴘ)
ᴇᴅɢᴇ -12.8% ᴏɴ ʙ | ᴠɪɢ ᴇᴠ: -52.2% | ѕᴛᴀᴋᴇ: — | ᴄᴏɴꜰ: ʜɪɢʜ
ꜰᴀɪʀ ᴍʟ ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ -269 / ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ +269

ℹ️ MODEL LEAN
ɴᴏ ʙᴇᴛ — ɴᴏ ᴠᴀʟᴜᴇ ᴀᴛ ᴄᴜʀʀᴇɴᴛ ᴏᴅᴅѕ (ᴍᴏᴅᴇʟ ʟᴇᴀɴ ᴏɴʟʏ, ɴᴏᴛ ᴀ ʙᴇᴛᴛɪɴɢ ᴘɪᴄᴋ)
ℹ️ Zachary Svajda — 27.1% | -131

ѕᴛʀᴜᴄᴛᴜʀᴇ & ʀɪѕᴋ
┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄
ᴄʟᴜѕᴛᴇʀ: ʟɪᴠᴇ ᴅᴏɢ (ɴᴇᴜᴛʀᴀʟ)
ᴅᴇᴄɪᴅᴇʀ: 50.0%
ᴀᴠɢ ɢᴀᴍᴇѕ: 24.4
ʀɪѕᴋ: 0.00 (ʟᴏᴡ) | ᴘᴇɴᴀʟᴛʏ: 0.000
ᴅᴀᴛᴀ: ᴏᴋ (ᴄᴏᴠᴇʀᴀɢᴇ 5/5, ᴛʀᴜѕᴛ 0.94)
ᴛʜʀᴇѕʜᴏʟᴅѕ: ᴍɪɴʟᴇᴀɴ=2.30% ᴍɪɴᴘʀɪᴍᴀʀʏ=3.80%
ᴅᴏɢ ᴠᴀʟᴜᴇ: 77/100 ✔ ѕᴛʀᴏɴɢ

ᴘʟᴀʏᴇʀ ɪɴᴛᴇʟ
┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄┄
ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ
ʀᴀɴᴋ 159 88
ᴇʟᴏ 1579 1661
ᴀᴠɢ ᴏᴘᴘ ʀᴀɴᴋ 160 207
ѕᴄʜᴇᴅᴜʟᴇ ᴍɪᴅ (ᴛʀᴜѕᴛ 0.97, ʀᴀɴᴋѕ 6)ᴍɪᴅ (ᴛʀᴜѕᴛ 0.94, ʀᴀɴᴋѕ 7)
ѕᴇʀᴠᴇ ѕᴛʏʟᴇ ᴍɪˣᴇᴅ ᴍɪˣᴇᴅ
ᴍᴏᴍᴇɴᴛᴜᴍ ѕᴛʀᴜɢɢʟɪɴɢ ѕᴛʀᴜɢɢʟɪɴɢ
ʜᴏʟᴅ % 76.2% 73.9%
ѕᴘᴡ % 65.8% 61.1%
ᴅᴏᴍɪɴᴀɴᴄᴇ ʀᴀᴛɪᴏ 0.80 0.58
ᴠᴏʟᴀᴛɪʟɪᴛʏ 3.9% 0.8%
ᴏᴘᴘ-ᴀᴅᴊ ꜰᴏʀᴍ: ᴅᴇʟᴛᴀ=0.4ᴘᴛ | ᴡᴇɪɢʜᴛ=22.0%
ʙʀᴇᴀᴋ ʀᴀᴛᴇ 26.1% 23.8%
1ѕᴛ ѕʀᴠ ᴡɪɴ % 72.8% 66.4%
2ɴᴅ ѕʀᴠ ᴡɪɴ % 51.8% 53.4%
1ѕᴛ ѕʀᴠ ɪɴ % 66.9% 58.5%
ᴀɴᴀʟʏᴛɪᴄᴀʟ ʜᴏʟᴅ 83.2% 77.8% (ɴᴇᴡᴛᴏɴ-ᴋᴇʟʟᴇʀ)
ѕᴏᴜʀᴄᴇѕ: ᴍᴏᴅᴇʟ 57.6% | ѕᴛᴀᴛѕ 67.2% | ᴇʟᴏ 35.7%

ѕɪɢɴᴀʟѕ: ᴠ38.2 ꜰᴀᴋᴇѕʜɪꜰᴛ: ꜰᴀᴋᴇ_ꜰᴀᴠ ѕʜɪꜰᴛ=-1.30ᴘᴘ (ᴄᴀʟɢᴀᴘ=-4.33ᴘᴘ), ᴅᴏɢ_ᴋɪʟʟ|ᴇᴅɢᴇ=9.3 ᴘ2=57 ʟᴀɴᴇ=ᴛʀᴜᴇ ѕᴡᴇᴇᴘ=32 ᴛʀᴜѕᴛ=6, ᴄʟᴜѕᴛᴇʀ ᴘʀᴏᴍᴏᴛᴇѕ ᴅᴏɢ, ᴅᴏɢ ʀɪѕᴋ ᴅɪѕᴄᴏᴜɴᴛ (-1.0), ᴇʟᴏᴄᴏɴꜰʟɪᴄᴛ ᴅᴏɢ: ᴇʟᴏ ɢᴀᴘ 14ᴘᴘ — ᴅᴏᴡɴɢʀᴀᴅᴇᴅ ᴘʀɪᴍᴀʀʏ→ʟᴇᴀɴ, ꜰᴀᴠᴘɪᴠᴏᴛ: ᴇʟᴏᴄᴏɴꜰʟɪᴄᴛ ᴋɪʟʟᴇᴅ ᴅᴏɢ, ᴇʟᴏ ʙᴀᴄᴋѕ ꜰᴀᴠ ѕɪᴅᴇ ʙ (ᴇʟᴏɢᴀᴘ=14ᴘᴘ, ᴇᴅɢᴇ=10.0ᴘᴘ, ʀɪѕᴋ=1.5), ᴛʀᴜᴇᴡɪɴɴᴇʀ/ᴘɪᴄᴋѕɪᴅᴇ ᴄᴏɴꜰʟɪᴄᴛ ꜰᴏʀᴄᴇᴅ ᴘᴀѕѕ (ѕᴛʀᴏɴɢ: 55%), ꜰᴀᴋᴇꜰᴀᴠ ᴍɪʟᴅ: ᴄᴀʟɪʙʀᴀᴛᴇᴅ ѕʜɪꜰᴛ=1.3ᴘᴘ (ᴀᴅᴠɪѕᴏʀʏ; ᴄʟѕ ᴜɴᴛᴏᴜᴄʜᴇᴅ), ᴇʟᴏ ᴄᴏɴꜰʟɪᴄᴛ

════════════════════════════════════════

ℹ️ [NOT AN OFFICIAL BET]
🎲 Sets Market:

  • 2 Sets: 60.1% | Book est -179

  • 3 Sets: 39.9% | Book est +135

Sets Bet: LEAN 3 SETS | Confidence: MID

Over/Under 2.5 Sets:

  • Under 2.5: 60.1% | Book est -184

  • Over 2.5: 39.9% | Book est +132

O/U Bet: LEAN OVER 2.5 | Confidence: MID (Sets + OU aligned)

Read: Decider path qualifies on structure, but the 2-set side still leads in raw probability. Treat the 3-set lane as a geometry-led lean, not a clean probability win. | Confidence: MID
P3 sources: disp 39.8% | adj 41.5% | raw 44.7% | mkt 37.7% | hold 43.9% | spread 7.0pp | hook stable

📊 Player Stats (Live):

  • ʜɪѕᴛ. ѕᴜʀꜰᴀᴄᴇ (ʀᴇᴅ ᴄʟᴀʏ): ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ (~64.9% (ᴇѕᴛ.)) | ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ (59.3% [0-1]) [ᴛᴀ_ʟɪᴠᴇ_ѕᴘᴡ]
  • ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ: ʜᴏʟᴅ 76.9% (ʀᴀᴡ: 83.7%, ᴀᴅᴊ: ᴛɪᴇʀ ᴘᴇɴᴀʟᴛʏ) [ᴇꜰʀᴏɴ-ᴍᴏʀʀɪѕ]
  • ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ: ʜᴏʟᴅ 73.4% (ʀᴀᴡ: 66.3%, ᴀᴅᴊ: ᴛɪᴇʀ ʙᴏᴏѕᴛ) [ᴇꜰʀᴏɴ-ᴍᴏʀʀɪѕ]
  • ѕᴛʏʟᴇ: ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ [ʙᴀѕᴇʟɪɴᴇ/ᴛᴀᴄᴛɪᴄɪᴀɴ] | ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ [ʙᴀѕᴇʟɪɴᴇ/ᴛᴀᴄᴛɪᴄɪᴀɴ]
  • ᴍᴀᴛᴄʜ ᴍᴏᴍᴇɴᴛᴜᴍ (ᴡᴀɴɢ): ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ ᴡᴀɴɢ ѕᴄᴏʀᴇ: 37.0% (ɴᴇɢᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴍᴏᴍᴇɴᴛᴜᴍ), ᴡ-ʟ 3-4, ѕѕ 3-4, ѕᴇᴛѕ 6-8 ; ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ ᴡᴀɴɢ ѕᴄᴏʀᴇ: 36.7% (ɴᴇɢᴀᴛɪᴠᴇ ᴍᴏᴍᴇɴᴛᴜᴍ), ᴡ-ʟ 2-5, ѕѕ 2-5, ѕᴇᴛѕ 4-10
  • 1ѕᴛ ѕʀᴠ ᴡɪɴ: ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ 72.8% | ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ 66.4%
  • 2ɴᴅ ѕʀᴠ ᴡɪɴ: ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ 51.8% | ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ 53.4%
  • 1ѕᴛ ѕʀᴠ ɪɴ: ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ 66.9% | ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ 58.5%
  • ѕᴘᴡ: ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ 65.8% | ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ 61.1% [ʙᴀʀɴᴇᴛᴛ-ᴄʟᴀʀᴋᴇ ᴀᴅᴊ.]
  • ʙʀᴇᴀᴋ ʀᴀᴛᴇ: ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ 26.6% | ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ 23.1%
  • ᴅᴏᴍɪɴᴀɴᴄᴇ ʀᴀᴛɪᴏ: ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ 0.80 | ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ 0.58 [ᴍɪѕᴍᴀᴛᴄʜ]
  • ᴠᴏʟᴀᴛɪʟɪᴛʏ: ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ 3.9% | ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ 0.8% | ᴍᴀᴛᴄʜ: 2.4%
  • ᴇʟᴏ: ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ ᴜɴᴅᴇʀᴅᴏɢ (35.7%) [ᴋᴍ-ᴇʟᴏ ʙʀɪᴅɢᴇ]
    ѕᴏᴜʀᴄᴇ: ᴇʟᴏ_ʟᴏᴏᴋᴜᴘ ѕʜᴇᴇᴛ (ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ=1579, ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ=1661)
  • ʙʟᴇɴᴅ (ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ): ᴍᴄ 57.6% | ѕᴛᴀᴛѕ 67.2% | ᴇʟᴏ 35.7%
  • ᴀɴᴀʟʏᴛɪᴄᴀʟ ʜᴏʟᴅ: ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ 83.2% | ᴢᴀᴄʜᴀʀʏ ѕᴠᴀᴊᴅᴀ 77.8% (ɴᴇᴡᴛᴏɴ-ᴋᴇʟʟᴇʀ)

ᴛᴏᴛᴀʟѕ ꜰᴀɪʀ ʟɪɴᴇ: 23.5 (ᴄᴅꜰ 50/50) | ᴍɪˣᴛᴜʀᴇ ᴍᴇᴅɪᴀɴ: 23.0
ᴛᴏᴛᴀʟѕ ʀᴀɴɢᴇ: ᴘ10=17 | ᴘ50=23 | ᴘ90=32
ᴛᴏᴛᴀʟѕ ᴇˣᴘᴇᴄᴛᴇᴅ: 24.3 (ᴍᴇᴀɴ) | ᴍᴇᴅɪᴀɴ: 23.0
ᴍᴏѕᴛ ᴄᴏᴍᴍᴏɴ ᴇˣᴀᴄᴛ: 19ɢ | ʜɪɢʜᴇѕᴛ-ᴅᴇɴѕɪᴛʏ ᴢᴏɴᴇ: 18-20ɢ 21.5%
ᴍɪˣᴛᴜʀᴇ ᴍᴇᴅɪᴀɴ: 23.0ɢ | ᴄᴏɴᴅɪᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ: ᴇ[ᴛ|2 ѕᴇᴛѕ] 19.9 | ᴇ[ᴛ|3 ѕᴇᴛѕ] 30.0 | ᴘ(3 ѕᴇᴛѕ) 42%
ᴛᴏᴛᴀʟѕ ᴘᴍꜰ (ᴛᴏᴘ ᴇˣᴀᴄᴛѕ): 19ɢ 7.9% | 22ɢ 7.8% | 20ɢ 7.4% | 18ɢ 6.2% | 21ɢ 5.7% | 17ɢ 5.6% | 23ɢ 5.6% | 30ɢ 5.2%
🎯 TOTAL GAMES:

ᴛᴏᴛᴀʟѕ ʀᴇɢɪᴍᴇ ѕᴛᴀʙʟᴇ (ᴍᴄ ᴄʜᴀɪɴѕ 3, ᴀᴠɢ ѕᴘʀᴇᴀᴅ 0.23 ɢ)
ℹ️ [NOT AN OFFICIAL BET] (Edge below threshold)
ʟᴇᴀɴ ᴏᴠᴇʀ 22.5 | ᴄᴏɴꜰɪᴅᴇɴᴄᴇ: ʟᴏᴡ
── ꜰʀᴀɢɪʟɪᴛʏ ꜰʟᴀɢѕ ──
⚠️ ᴍᴏᴅᴇʀᴀᴛᴇʟʏ ʙɪᴍᴏᴅᴀʟ (ѕᴄᴏʀᴇ=0.45) — ᴇʟᴇᴠᴀᴛᴇᴅ ᴠᴀʀɪᴀɴᴄᴇ
⚠️ ʜᴇᴀᴠʏ ʀɪɢʜᴛ ᴛᴀɪʟ (ᴘ≥31=19.2%) — ʙʟᴏᴡᴏᴜᴛ ʀɪѕᴋ

ᴡʜʏ ɪᴛ ꜰɪᴛѕ:
ᴇˣᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ-ᴍᴀᴛᴄʜ ʀᴏᴜᴛᴇѕ ᴘʀᴏᴠɪᴅᴇ ᴇɴᴏᴜɢʜ ᴡᴇɪɢʜᴛ ᴛᴏ ꜰᴀᴠᴏʀ ᴛʜᴇ ᴏᴠᴇʀ.

ѕʜᴀᴘᴇ:
2-ѕᴇᴛ ᴄʟᴜѕᴛᴇʀ 20ɢ | ±1σ ʀᴀɴɢᴇ: 17-23ɢ | ᴘ(ᴏᴠᴇʀ 22.5) ɪɴ ʟᴀɴᴇ: 17.8% | 3-ѕᴇᴛ ᴄʟᴜѕᴛᴇʀ 30ɢ | ᴘ(ᴅᴇᴄɪᴅᴇʀ) 50% (ѕᴛʀᴏɴɢ, 100% ᴏꜰ ᴍᴀˣ) | ᴡᴄᴇ 24.1ɢ

ᴘʀɪᴄɪɴɢ:
ᴍᴏᴅᴇʟ ꜰᴀɪʀ 23.5 ᴠѕ ᴍᴀʀᴋᴇᴛ 22.5 (+1.0ɢ)

ᴇɴɢɪɴᴇ ʙʀᴇᴀᴋᴅᴏᴡɴ:

  1. ᴍᴄ ᴏᴠᴇʀ (ᴀɴᴛɪᴛʜᴇᴛɪᴄ): 53.8% (ɪɴᴄʟᴜᴅᴇѕ ᴘᴜѕʜᴇѕ) [ѕᴇᴛ ѕᴘʟɪᴛ: 2ѕᴇᴛ 50% | 3ѕᴇᴛ 50%]
  2. ɴᴏ-ᴘᴜѕʜ ᴍᴄ: 50.2% ᴜɴᴅᴇʀ
  3. ɢᴏᴠᴇʀɴᴏʀ ᴏᴠᴇʀ: 58.3% (ʙʟᴇɴᴅ ᴡᴇɪɢʜᴛ: 0%)
  4. ᴏᴡɴᴇʀ (ᴘɪᴄᴋ): 56.4% ᴏᴠᴇʀ
  5. ᴅɪѕᴘʟᴀʏ ᴜɴᴅᴇʀ: 50.1% (ᴄᴏѕᴍᴇᴛɪᴄ ᴏɴʟʏ, ɴᴏᴛ ᴜѕᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʀ ᴘɪᴄᴋ)
    ᴍᴀʀᴋᴏᴠ ᴄʀᴏѕѕᴄʜᴇᴄᴋ: 53.9% ᴜɴᴅᴇʀ
    ꜰᴀɪʀ ʟɪɴᴇѕ - ᴍᴄ: 23.5 | ᴍᴀʀᴋᴏᴠ: 21.5 | ɢᴀᴘ: 7.8ᴘᴛѕ, 2.00ɢ
    ѕᴇᴛѕ ᴄᴏʜᴇʀᴇɴᴄᴇ: ꜰɪʀᴇᴅ | ѕᴇᴛѕ=ʟᴇᴀɴ 3 ѕᴇᴛѕ ʟᴀɴᴇᴄᴇɴᴛᴇʀ=30.0 ʟɪɴᴇ=22.5 ɢᴀᴘ=7.5ɢ ᴄᴏɴꜰ=ᴍɪᴅ ᴀʟɪɢɴᴇᴅ=ᴛʀᴜᴇ ᴄᴏɴꜰʟɪᴄᴛ=ꜰᴀʟѕᴇ ᴅɪѕᴄᴏᴜɴᴛ=0.070 ʀᴇᴄᴏᴠᴇʀʏ=0.000
    ʜᴀʟꜰ-ʟɪɴᴇ 22.5 - ᴍᴄ: ᴜɴᴅᴇʀ 46.1% | ᴏᴠᴇʀ 53.9%
    ʜᴀʟꜰ-ʟɪɴᴇ 22.5 - ᴍᴀʀᴋᴏᴠ: ᴜɴᴅᴇʀ 53.9% | ᴏᴠᴇʀ 46.1%
    ᴛᴀɪʟ - ᴘ(>=30): 24.4% | ᴘ(>=31): 19.2% | ᴘ(>=35): 4.4%
    ʙᴜᴄᴋᴇᴛѕ: ʟᴇꜰᴛᴛᴀɪʟ(ʟ-6) 6.0% | ʟᴏᴄᴀʟᴍᴀѕѕ ʟᴏᴡ 13.2% ʜɪɢʜ 5.5%
    ɴᴇᴀʀ-ʟɪɴᴇ ᴍᴀѕѕ @22.5: 13.4% (ᴘ(22)+ᴘ(23)) | ʟᴏᴄᴀʟ 21-23: 19.1% | 20-24: 28.2%
    ᴀᴅᴊᴀᴄᴇɴᴛ ᴇˣᴀᴄᴛѕ: ᴘ(22ɢ) 7.8% | ᴘ(23ɢ) 5.6%
    ᴍᴀʀᴋᴏᴠ 3-ѕᴇᴛ ᴀᴅᴊ: 42.9% (ᴘᴇɴᴀʟᴛʏ 0.0%)
    ʜᴏᴏᴋ ᴍᴀѕѕ @22.5: 2ѕᴇᴛ 23.0% | 3ѕᴇᴛ 1.5% | ʙʟᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ 12.3% [ʜᴏᴏᴋ ꜰʀᴀɢɪʟᴇ] | ꜰʟᴏᴏʀ(22ɢ) 7.1% ᴠѕ ᴄᴇɪʟ(23ɢ) 5.2% | ɢʀᴀᴠɪᴛʏ 22.42ɢ | ɴᴜᴅɢᴇ ᴜɴᴅᴇʀ 1.5ᴘᴘ
    ʟᴍᴘ: ѕᴋᴇᴡ=-0.305 ᴅɪʀᴄʀᴇᴅɪᴛ=+10.54ᴘᴘ ᴜɴᴄᴘᴇɴ=57.0% ɴᴇᴀʀ=13.4% ᴄᴏᴍ=22.00 ᴇɴᴛ=3.227 ᴡ3=21.5%[18-20]

ѕɪᴍᴜʟᴀᴛɪᴏɴ (12000 ʀᴜɴѕ): ᴍᴇᴅɪᴀɴ 23.0ɢ, 54% ᴏᴠᴇʀ 22.5.
ᴍᴀᴛᴄʜ ѕʜᴀᴘᴇ (ᴍᴀʀᴋᴏᴠ ꜰᴀɪʀ 21.5ɢ, 2-ѕᴇᴛ ᴄʟᴜѕᴛᴇʀ 20ɢ (58% ᴏꜰ ᴘᴀᴛʜѕ), 3-ѕᴇᴛ ᴄʟᴜѕᴛᴇʀ 30ɢ (42% ᴏꜰ ᴘᴀᴛʜѕ)) — ʙᴀʟᴀɴᴄᴇᴅ, ɴᴏ ᴄʟᴇᴀʀ ʟᴇᴀɴ.
ᴡɪᴛʜɪɴ 2-ѕᴇᴛ ᴄʟᴜѕᴛᴇʀ: ±1σ ʀᴀɴɢᴇ: 17-23ɢ | ᴘ(ᴏᴠᴇʀ 22.5) ɪɴ ʟᴀɴᴇ: 17.8%
ᴀᴜᴅɪᴛ: ᴅɪʀᴍᴄ=ᴏᴠᴇʀ | ᴘѕɪᴅᴇᴍᴄ=50.5% | ᴄʟᴜѕᴛᴇʀᴅɪʀ=ᴜɴᴅᴇʀ | ᴄʜᴏѕᴇɴᴅɪʀ=ᴏᴠᴇʀ | ɪɴᴠᴀʀɪᴀɴᴛ=ᴏᴋ

📊 ᴜɴᴅᴇʀᴅᴏɢ ᴀѕѕᴇѕѕᴍᴇɴᴛ:
⚠️ ᴠᴀʟᴜᴇ ᴛʀᴀᴘ (ɢʀɪɴᴅᴇʀ ᴅᴏɢ): ʀᴇɪ ѕᴀᴋᴀᴍᴏᴛᴏ @ 72.9% (+27.2% ᴇᴅɢᴇ)
ʙɪɢ ᴍᴀᴛʜ ᴇᴅɢᴇ, ʙᴜᴛ ᴅᴏɢ ᴍᴀʏ ѕᴛʀᴜɢɢʟᴇ ᴛᴏ ʜᴏʟᴅ. ᴘʀᴇꜰᴇʀ ɢᴀᴍᴇѕ ʜᴀɴᴅɪᴄᴀᴘ ᴏᴠᴇʀ ᴍʟ.

The match went 2 sets and under total games logic

Update my script then send it as a downloadable txt link

思考

bash -lc sed -n '18560,18655p' /mnt/data/Tennislocks_logicfixed.txt

Thought for 1m 26s

回答

I fixed the logic and saved the patched script here:

Tennislocks_logicfixed.txt

What changed:

  • Removed the unconditional can3Lean -> LEAN 3 SETS fallback that was letting weak 3-set leans survive even when structure was mixed and 2-sets was still the real probability leader. (Tennislocks_updated.txt)
  • Made soft 3-set bets/leads require actual 3-set structure: structural label, model agreement, or strong bimodal support.
  • Added probability-leader pressure directly into the tree, so when 2-sets is clearly ahead, the engine now prefers LEAN/BET 2 SETS or PASS instead of leaking into a casual 3-set lean.
  • Kept locked archetypes intact, so true structural 3-set spots still survive.

Your earlier patch was real, but it was post-hoc. The root issue was still earlier in the tree where the script could fall through to LEAN 3 SETS just because can3Lean was true. That’s why the bad outcome kept happening. (Tennislocks_updated.txt)

I edited the uploaded script you provided: (Tennislocks_updated.txt)

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