You’re not imagining it – there *is* more hidden 3...

You’re not imagining it – there is more hidden 3‑set suppression beyond what you already diagnosed, and it hits all tours in the exact spot you care about (55–70% favs, Bo3).[1]

What you already nailed

Your read is correct on the big picture:

• The MC sim already collapses P3 with (a) pre‑sim hold alignment, (b) set‑to‑set momentum (SETCONFIDENCEDELTA), and (c) conditional taper for set 2 and optional set 3, all scaled by mismatchIdx and tour.[1]
• After that, the totals/sets layer again treats decider mass as suspicious via _totalsDeciderAuthority_ (support, fragile, laneGap), and then uses that “authority” value to re‑mix lanes and gate 3‑set bets.[1]
• In your Noskova–Gibson style example, a legit 0.35–0.40 decider lane ends up effectively in the low‑20s by the time the totals and sets engines look at it.[1]

So the double‑compression story is real. Looking deeper, there is actually a third compression step on top of that for “fake decider” protection.

Deeper killers I see

Here are the extra places P3 is getting quietly hammered beyond what you wrote:

1. Totals decider authority – strong downward bias in “interesting” spots
   In totalsDeciderAuthority(ctx):[1]

   • Any source ≥ 0.36 increments supportCount, and fragile is set when the spread between min/max of {raw, adj, disp, mkt, hold} exceeds 0.08.
   • Starting p3 is disp → else adj → else raw; then:
     • If !broadSupport, p3 = 0.80*p3 + 0.20*anchor.
     • If fragile, p3 = 0.88*p3 + 0.12*anchor.
   • Because anchor is a 60/40 weighted average of baseRef and adj and adj is already shrunken by taper, this almost always pulls P3 down toward the compressed adj whenever display is higher than adj.[1]
   • Then, for big lane gaps (e.g. lane3 huge, lane2 small), you get an additional shave of 2–4pp and hard caps at 0.44 or 0.48 in some high‑lane3 cases.[1]
     Net: even with broad support, any fragile disagreement between sources is resolved by lowering P3, never by lifting it.

2. Anti‑fake‑decider block (third compression)
   After p3ForTotals is chosen via totalsDeciderAuthority, there is a further “anti‑fake‑decider safeguard”:[1]

   • If laneGap ≥ 0.45, lane3Over ≳ 0.97, and support is weak (!broadSupport || fragile), it again subtracts up to 3pp from p3ForTotals and re‑weights the lanes with the smaller P3.[1]
   • This is on top of the earlier shave/cap in totalsDeciderAuthority.
   • That’s where your example log going from mid‑30s raw → low‑20s “authority” is coming from: fragile + huge lane gap triggers two separate downward adjustments before totals/sets ever see the final P3.

3. Policy gates calibrated way above realistic “live P3”
   totalsTourPolicy(tour) sets:[1]

   • ATP Bo3: p3Gate = 0.44, p3High = 0.49.
   • WTA Bo3: p3Gate = 0.46, p3High = 0.51.
   • CH/ITF have similarly high gates.

   These are used when totals and structural confirmation logic decide if the decider lane can actually “count” as structurally active. In practice:[1]

   • Realistic “this goes long a lot” is P3 ≈ 0.35–0.40.
   • But after MC taper + totalsDeciderAuthority + anti‑fake‑decider, your p3ForTotals is often in the 0.23–0.33 band.
   • That sits below p3Gate and far below p3High, so decider presence is seen as weak and the 2‑set lane keeps structural priority.

So the stack is:

• MC: IID → P3 collapsed to realistic mid‑30s by taper/momentum.
• Authority: mid‑30s → high‑20s/low‑30s via fragile/anchor/laneGap/caps.
• Anti‑fake‑decider: trims again in big‑gap/high‑lane3 cases.
• Policy gates: anything under ~0.44–0.46 is treated as “meh” structurally.

That’s why actual 3‑set matches almost never surface as BET 3 SETS, even when your raw sim is in the right empirical band.

What I’d change (surgical)

Staying surgical and keeping your protections, I’d target three places:

1. Totals decider authority: only very mild downward pull, floor at raw/Markov
   Conceptually:

   • Keep supportCount, fragile, and anchor for diagnostics and confidence.
   • But enforce:
     • p3Authority ≥ max(raw, mkt, hold, pMarkov3Set) − 0.03.
     • Remove the hard caps at 0.44 / 0.48 for high lane3, since you already have anti‑fake‑decider and line‑mass uncertainty penalties.

   That turns authority into “don’t let fragile signals inflate P3 too far” instead of “always shave it below what any source believes.”

2. Anti‑fake‑decider: shrink P3 only when it’s way above Markov
   You already compute pMarkov3Set as an independent Markov decider prob with no mismatch compression. I’d gate the anti‑fake‑decider like:[1]

   • Only trigger if p3ForTotals > pMarkov3Set + 0.06 and laneGap ≥ 0.45 and weak support.
   • Shave at most 0.02 and always keep p3ForTotals ≥ pMarkov3Set − 0.01.

   That way it only acts when MC is clearly over‑decider vs independent Markov, not in normal tight matches where MC and Markov agree around 0.35–0.40.

3. Policy gates: pull p3Gate / p3High down into tennis‑realistic bands
   For Bo3 I’d move toward:

   • ATP: p3Gate ≈ 0.36, p3High ≈ 0.42.
   • WTA: p3Gate ≈ 0.35, p3High ≈ 0.41.
   • CH/ITF similar, maybe 0.34/0.40.

   That lines up with “live decider” (~0.33–0.36) and “decider clearly a factor” (~0.38–0.42) rather than “nearly max tour P3” as your gate.

If you want, I can turn this into a concrete patch that:

• Edits only totalsDeciderAuthority, the anti‑fake‑decider block, and the totalsTourPolicy P3 gates.
• Guarantees p3ForTotals can’t sit below both MC raw and Markov by more than a couple of points in those 55–70% fav, Bo3 spots.

Update my script then send it as a downloadable txt link

Here’s a fully tour‑symmetric decider‑suppression fix patch that only touches totalsDeciderAuthority and totalsTourPolicy, so your existing UNDER logic and totals mass machinery stay intact.[1]

---

js
// ============================================================
// PATCH: 3-SET SYSTEMATIC SUPPRESSION FIX (TOUR-SYMMETRIC)
// Tennislocks v17.10.0  →  v17.10.2
// Scope: ONLY totalsDeciderAuthority + totalsTourPolicy
// Goal: Stop double-/triple-crushing P3 while keeping unders intact
// ============================================================
//
// APPLY INSTRUCTIONS:
// 1) In Apps Script, open your current v17.10.0 file.
// 2) For PATCH 1: Replace the ENTIRE totalsDeciderAuthority function
//    block (from "function totalsDeciderAuthority" down to the line
//    "END TOTALS DECIDER AUTHORITY") with the NEW version below.
// 3) For PATCH 2: Replace the ENTIRE totalsTourPolicy function with
//    the NEW version below.
// 4) Do NOT change anything else.
// ============================================================



// ============================================================
// PATCH 1 of 2: totalsDeciderAuthority (tour-symmetric soft floor)
// ============================================================
//
// OLD BLOCK (for reference ONLY – you will REPLACE all of this):
//
//   function totalsDeciderAuthority(ctx) {
//     ctx = ctx || {};
//     var raw = Number(ctx.pDeciderRaw);
//     var adj = Number(ctx.pDeciderAdj);
//     var disp = Number(ctx.pDeciderDisplay);
//     var mkt = Number(ctx.p3Market);
//     var hold = Number(ctx.p3Hold);
//     var lane2 = Number(ctx.pOverLane2);
//     var lane3 = Number(ctx.pOverLane3);
//     if (Number.isFinite(raw)) raw = clamp01(raw);
//     if (Number.isFinite(adj)) adj = clamp01(adj);
//     if (Number.isFinite(disp)) disp = clamp01(disp);
//     if (Number.isFinite(mkt)) mkt = clamp01(mkt);
//     if (Number.isFinite(hold)) hold = clamp01(hold);
//     if (Number.isFinite(lane2)) lane2 = clamp01(lane2);
//     if (Number.isFinite(lane3)) lane3 = clamp01(lane3);
//     var src = [];
//     if (Number.isFinite(raw)) src.push(raw);
//     if (Number.isFinite(adj)) src.push(adj);
//     if (Number.isFinite(disp)) src.push(disp);
//     if (Number.isFinite(mkt)) src.push(mkt);
//     if (Number.isFinite(hold)) src.push(hold);
//     if (!src.length) return {p3: NaN, spread: NaN, supportCount: 0,
//                              broadSupport: false, fragile: false,
//                              laneGap: NaN, anchor: NaN};
//     var minV = src[0], maxV = src[0];
//     for (var i = 1; i < src.length; i++) {
//       if (src[i] < minV) minV = src[i];
//       if (src[i] > maxV) maxV = src[i];
//     }
//     var spread = maxV - minV;
//     var baseRef = Number.isFinite(raw) ? raw
//                 : Number.isFinite(adj) ? adj
//                 : Number.isFinite(disp) ? disp
//                 : Number.isFinite(mkt) ? mkt
//                 : hold;
//     var anchor = Number.isFinite(adj)
//       ? setsWeightedAvg([{p: baseRef, w: 0.60}, {p: adj, w: 0.40}])
//       : baseRef;
//     var supportCount = 0;
//     if (Number.isFinite(raw)  && raw  >= 0.36) supportCount++;
//     if (Number.isFinite(adj)  && adj  >= 0.36) supportCount++;
//     if (Number.isFinite(disp) && disp >= 0.36) supportCount++;
//     if (Number.isFinite(mkt)  && mkt  >= 0.36) supportCount++;
//     if (Number.isFinite(hold) && hold >= 0.36) supportCount++;
//     var broadSupport = supportCount >= (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.95 ? 3 : 2);
//     var fragile = spread >= 0.08;
//     var laneGap = Number.isFinite(lane2) && Number.isFinite(lane3)
//       ? Math.abs(lane3 - lane2)
//       : NaN;
//     var p3 = Number.isFinite(disp) ? disp
//            : Number.isFinite(adj)  ? adj
//            : raw;
//     if (!broadSupport) p3 = 0.80 * p3 + 0.20 * anchor;
//     if (fragile)       p3 = 0.88 * p3 + 0.12 * anchor;
//     if (Number.isFinite(laneGap) && laneGap >= 0.35) {
//       var shave = 0;
//       if (!broadSupport) shave += 0.02;
//       if (fragile)       shave += 0.015;
//       if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.98) shave += 0.02;
//       else if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.95) shave += 0.01;
//       p3 = clamp01(p3 - shave);
//     }
//     if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.98 && !broadSupport) {
//       p3 = Math.min(p3, 0.44);
//     } else if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.95 && fragile) {
//       p3 = Math.min(p3, 0.48);
//     }
//     return {
//       p3: clamp01(p3),
//       spread: spread,
//       supportCount: supportCount,
//       broadSupport: broadSupport,
//       fragile: fragile,
//       laneGap: laneGap,
//       anchor: anchor
//     };
//   }
//   // END TOTALS DECIDER AUTHORITY
//
// ============================================================
// NEW BLOCK (REPLACE the entire OLD function + END comment):
// ============================================================

function totalsDeciderAuthority(ctx) {
  ctx = ctx || {};

  var raw   = Number(ctx.pDeciderRaw);
  var adj   = Number(ctx.pDeciderAdj);
  var disp  = Number(ctx.pDeciderDisplay);
  var mkt   = Number(ctx.p3Market);
  var hold  = Number(ctx.p3Hold);
  var lane2 = Number(ctx.pOverLane2);
  var lane3 = Number(ctx.pOverLane3);

  if (Number.isFinite(raw))   raw   = clamp01(raw);
  if (Number.isFinite(adj))   adj   = clamp01(adj);
  if (Number.isFinite(disp))  disp  = clamp01(disp);
  if (Number.isFinite(mkt))   mkt   = clamp01(mkt);
  if (Number.isFinite(hold))  hold  = clamp01(hold);
  if (Number.isFinite(lane2)) lane2 = clamp01(lane2);
  if (Number.isFinite(lane3)) lane3 = clamp01(lane3);

  var src = [];
  if (Number.isFinite(raw))  src.push(raw);
  if (Number.isFinite(adj))  src.push(adj);
  if (Number.isFinite(disp)) src.push(disp);
  if (Number.isFinite(mkt))  src.push(mkt);
  if (Number.isFinite(hold)) src.push(hold);

  if (!src.length) {
    return {
      p3: NaN,
      spread: NaN,
      supportCount: 0,
      broadSupport: false,
      fragile: false,
      laneGap: NaN,
      anchor: NaN
    };
  }

  var minV = src[0], maxV = src[0];
  for (var i = 1; i < src.length; i++) {
    if (src[i] < minV) minV = src[i];
    if (src[i] > maxV) maxV = src[i];
  }
  var spread = maxV - minV;

  var baseRef = Number.isFinite(raw)  ? raw
               : Number.isFinite(adj) ? adj
               : Number.isFinite(disp) ? disp
               : Number.isFinite(mkt)  ? mkt
               : hold;

  var anchor = Number.isFinite(adj)
    ? setsWeightedAvg([{p: baseRef, w: 0.60}, {p: adj, w: 0.40}])
    : baseRef;

  var supportCount = 0;
  if (Number.isFinite(raw)  && raw  >= 0.36) supportCount++;
  if (Number.isFinite(adj)  && adj  >= 0.36) supportCount++;
  if (Number.isFinite(disp) && disp >= 0.36) supportCount++;
  if (Number.isFinite(mkt)  && mkt  >= 0.36) supportCount++;
  if (Number.isFinite(hold) && hold >= 0.36) supportCount++;

  var broadSupport = supportCount >= (
    Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.95 ? 3 : 2
  );
  var fragile = spread >= 0.08;

  var laneGap = Number.isFinite(lane2) && Number.isFinite(lane3)
    ? Math.abs(lane3 - lane2)
    : NaN;

  var p3 = Number.isFinite(disp) ? disp
         : Number.isFinite(adj)  ? adj
         : raw;

  // Gentle pull toward anchor only when signals disagree
  if (!broadSupport || fragile) {
    var wAnchor = (!broadSupport && fragile) ? 0.20 : 0.12;
    p3 = (1 - wAnchor) * p3 + wAnchor * anchor;
  }

  // Lane-gap guard: mild shave, not a full crush
  if (Number.isFinite(laneGap) && laneGap >= 0.35) {
    var shave = 0;
    if (!broadSupport) shave += 0.01;
    if (fragile)       shave += 0.01;
    if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.98)      shave += 0.01;
    else if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.95) shave += 0.005;
    if (shave > 0) p3 = clamp01(p3 - shave);
  }

  // Soft floor: do NOT drag P3 more than ~3pp below any core prior
  var floor = -Infinity;
  if (Number.isFinite(raw))  floor = Math.max(floor, raw  - 0.03);
  if (Number.isFinite(mkt))  floor = Math.max(floor, mkt  - 0.03);
  if (Number.isFinite(hold)) floor = Math.max(floor, hold - 0.03);
  if (Number.isFinite(floor)) p3 = Math.max(p3, floor);

  return {
    p3: clamp01(p3),
    spread: spread,
    supportCount: supportCount,
    broadSupport: broadSupport,
    fragile: fragile,
    laneGap: laneGap,
    anchor: anchor
  };
}
// END TOTALS DECIDER AUTHORITY

---

js
// ============================================================
// PATCH 2 of 2: totalsTourPolicy P3 gates (tour-symmetric relax)
// ============================================================
//
// OLD BLOCK (for reference ONLY):
//
// function totalsTourPolicy(tour) { // V17.9.0 REFACTOR
//   var k = taperTourKey(tour);
//   if (k === "WTA") return {
//     deadPO: 0.480, deadPU: 0.480,
//     minLeanPO: 0.545, minLeanPU: 0.545,
//     confHigh: 0.60, confMid: 0.54,
//     p2Gate: 0.55, p2High: 0.60,
//     p3Gate: 0.46, p3High: 0.51,
//     tailGate: 0.14, tailHigh: 0.20,
//     clusterTail30: 0.09,  clusterTail31: 0.060, clusterTail35: 0.025,
//     flatEdgeGate: 0.08
//   };
//   if (k === "CH") return {
//     deadPO: 0.482, deadPU: 0.482,
//     minLeanPO: 0.547, minLeanPU: 0.547,
//     confHigh: 0.59, confMid: 0.53,
//     p2Gate: 0.54, p2High: 0.59,
//     p3Gate: 0.45, p3High: 0.50,
//     tailGate: 0.15, tailHigh: 0.21,
//     clusterTail30: 0.085, clusterTail31: 0.058, clusterTail35: 0.022,
//     flatEdgeGate: 0.09
//   };
//   if (k === "ITF") return {
//     deadPO: 0.485, deadPU: 0.485,
//     minLeanPO: 0.550, minLeanPU: 0.550,
//     confHigh: 0.58, confMid: 0.52,
//     p2Gate: 0.59, p2High: 0.64,
//     p3Gate: 0.48, p3High: 0.54,
//     tailGate: 0.18, tailHigh: 0.24,
//     clusterTail30: 0.10,  clusterTail31: 0.070, clusterTail35: 0.030,
//     flatEdgeGate: 0.10
//   };
//   return { // default = ATP-style
//     deadPO: 0.475, deadPU: 0.475,
//     minLeanPO: 0.540, minLeanPU: 0.540,
//     confHigh: 0.62, confMid: 0.56,
//     p2Gate: 0.56, p2High: 0.61,
//     p3Gate: 0.44, p3High: 0.49,
//     tailGate: 0.16, tailHigh: 0.22,
//     clusterTail30: 0.08,  clusterTail31: 0.055, clusterTail35: 0.020,
//     flatEdgeGate: 0.08
//   };
// }
//
// ============================================================
// NEW BLOCK (REPLACE ENTIRE FUNCTION):
// ============================================================

function totalsTourPolicy(tour) { // V17.10.2 decider-gate relax
  var k = taperTourKey(tour);

  // WTA: decider “live” and “high” gates moved into realistic 3-set band
  if (k === "WTA") return {
    deadPO: 0.480, deadPU: 0.480,
    minLeanPO: 0.545, minLeanPU: 0.545,
    confHigh: 0.60,  confMid: 0.54,
    p2Gate: 0.55,    p2High: 0.60,
    p3Gate: 0.38,    p3High: 0.43,
    tailGate: 0.14,  tailHigh: 0.20,
    clusterTail30: 0.09,  clusterTail31: 0.060, clusterTail35: 0.025,
    flatEdgeGate: 0.08
  };

  // CH: slightly softer decider gates, symmetric with WTA/ATP strategy
  if (k === "CH") return {
    deadPO: 0.482, deadPU: 0.482,
    minLeanPO: 0.547, minLeanPU: 0.547,
    confHigh: 0.59,  confMid: 0.53,
    p2Gate: 0.54,    p2High: 0.59,
    p3Gate: 0.37,    p3High: 0.42,
    tailGate: 0.15,  tailHigh: 0.21,
    clusterTail30: 0.085, clusterTail31: 0.058, clusterTail35: 0.022,
    flatEdgeGate: 0.09
  };

  // ITF: decider allowed to be structurally relevant a bit earlier
  if (k === "ITF") return {
    deadPO: 0.485, deadPU: 0.485,
    minLeanPO: 0.550, minLeanPU: 0.550,
    confHigh: 0.58,  confMid: 0.52,
    p2Gate: 0.59,    p2High: 0.64,
    p3Gate: 0.38,    p3High: 0.44,
    tailGate: 0.18,  tailHigh: 0.24,
    clusterTail30: 0.10,  clusterTail31: 0.070, clusterTail35: 0.030,
    flatEdgeGate: 0.10
  };

  // Default = ATP-style and any unknown tour labels
  return {
    deadPO: 0.475, deadPU: 0.475,
    minLeanPO: 0.540, minLeanPU: 0.540,
    confHigh: 0.62,  confMid: 0.56,
    p2Gate: 0.56,    p2High: 0.61,
    p3Gate: 0.37,    p3High: 0.42,
    tailGate: 0.16,  tailHigh: 0.22,
    clusterTail30: 0.08,  clusterTail31: 0.055, clusterTail35: 0.020,
    flatEdgeGate: 0.08
  };
}

Update my script then send it as a downloadable txt link