Right now you have **two separate things** mixed t...

Right now you have two separate things mixed together:

• a very good math engine (winner, sets, totals, bimodal, tails, governance)
• a very old-school output layer that still dumps a huge wall of text

Your Linette–Kessler printout is 100% coming from that old output layer, even though the underlying logic and risk policies are the new v25 ones.[1]

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1. Why Confidence = NONE on Over 21.5 is correct

Under the hood, totals decisions go like this (simplified but accurate):[1]

1. Compute raw totals edge from MC + Markov + bimodal lane blend.
2. Apply risk penalties:
   • bimodal score
   • tail risk (P≥30, P≥31, P≥35)
   • empirical anchor deviation
   • data quality and cold-start
3. Feed the penalized edge into unifiedBetGuard → DecisionPolicy.evaluate: that returns confLabel in {HIGH, MID, LOW, NONE} and allow true/false.[1]

In this match you have, from the text:

• Bimodal score ≈ 0.61 → “moderately bimodal” flag
• Heavy right tail P≥31 = 16.7% → blowout / long-path risk
• Empirical anchor deviation > 12 pts → “confidence capped” note
• Bimodal, heavy tail, big empirical deviation together hit the riskPenalty, so the effective edge drops below the per-tour minimum edge for a labeled confidence tier.[1]

Result:

• allow = true (so it’s still an OFFICIAL BET)
• confLabel = NONE (edge exists, but risk is high enough that it does not qualify even for LOW).[1]

So “Over 21.5 | Confidence: NONE | ⚠️ Bimodal Match” is actually the right behavior: “We like it, but variance and anchors are gnarly enough that we refuse to slap LOW/MID/HIGH on it.”

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2. Why the output still looks “old”

All of this text (what you pasted) is generated by the legacy MATCHPREVIEW display section, which is still active:[1]

• 🎯 WTA 1000 Miami ...
• 📊 Player Stats (Live): bullets
• Long quoted sections: “WHY IT FITS”, “SHAPE”, “PRICING”, “ENGINE BREAKDOWN (BIMODAL)”
• Final section “🏆 FINAL PICKS 🏆” with freeform paragraphs

In the code, this is exactly the stuff built by lines.push(...) inside the MATCHPREVIEW(...) function’s “SECTION 10 DISPLAY PREVIEW NARRATIVE LAYER” and below. That layer:[1]

• Directly writes all the headers and walls of prose you see now.
• Was written before we designed the new 10-block card layout (Winner card, sets card, totals card, bimodal card, props card, underdog card, data quality card, final summary).

So even though the math and governance are v25, the print is legacy.

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3. What you actually want instead

The new output layer we discussed earlier would show the same information but in tight panels, for this exact match it would look conceptually like:[1]

1. Winner card:

   • Linette vs Kessler
   • Model/Stats/Elo row
   • Display prob, raw prob, fair ML, market ML, edge, confidence “LOW”, and a short reason list.

2. Totals (bimodal) card:

   • Line 21.5, raw MC 58–59% over, Markov ~67% over
   • 2-set lane vs 3-set lane in a single table:
     • lane weight
     • center (median)
     • fair line/EV
     • $P(\text{Over 21.5})$ in lane
   • Flags: bimodal score 0.61, P≥31 = 16.7%, empirical deviation > 12 pts → confidence capped to NONE.

3. Sets market card:

   • P(3 sets) 43.6% (MID), bet OVER 2.5 sets (MID), with the same numbers you see but as a compact table.

4. Player stat card:

   • Holds, SPW, break%, 1st-in, 1st-win, 2nd-win, dominance, volatility in aligned rows, instead of a bullet list.

5. Underdog assessment card:

   • “Market disagrees: Kessler 35.3% vs market 41%” and the dog edge classification line, but confined to one short section.

Nothing in the math changes; only the shape of what’s printed changes.

---

4. How to actually switch to the new output (step-by-step)

Right now, just the legacy layer runs, because that’s still the only code sitting in the “OUTPUT GENERATION / DISPLAY” part of MATCHPREVIEW.[1]

To move to the new layout you must:

1. Open TennisLocks_v25_CLEANED-3 and search for function MATCHPREVIEW.
   This is already there and is the main entrypoint Sheets calls.[1]

2. Inside MATCHPREVIEW, scroll down to the “--- 7. OUTPUT GENERATION ---” comment where you see:

   js
   // --- 7. OUTPUT GENERATION ---
   var lines = [];
   ...
   lines.push( ... );  // hundreds of push() calls
   ...
   try {
     var clean = [];
     // cleanup loop
     ...
   } catch (clErr) { ... }
   return clean.join("\n"); // or lines.join("\n")

   Everything from var lines = [] down to that final return ...join("\n") is the old output layer.[1]

3. Comment out or delete that entire block of lines.push(...) calls.

   • You keep all the logic above it (totals engine, bimodal detection, governance, etc.).
   • You only remove the string-building part.

4. Paste the new output template in its place.

   • The new template will also start with var lines = []; and end with return lines.join("\n");.
   • It will read from the same objects you already build earlier in MATCHPREVIEW:
     • totSim, totCtx, p3Disp, projIsBimodal, projIsSoftBimodal, pvDecision, pvDevig, statsA/B, etc.
   • So you are only changing display, not touching the engine.

Once you do that, the same Linette–Kessler run will:

• Still have:
  • Winner LEAN Linette, LOW confidence
  • Sets 3, OVER 2.5 sets MID
  • Totals Over 21.5, Confidence NONE, with bimodal/tail/anchor flags
• But will print as the new panels instead of the giant narrative block.

---

5. Answering your exact questions plainly

• “Confidence none?”
  Yes, that is expected. The edge is real, but bimodal + heavy tail + empirical deviation > 12 pts pushes effective edge below the min threshold for LOW, so the policy correctly outputs NONE for this total while still allowing the bet.

• “All this looks like old output?”
  Yes. The math and governance are v25, but you have not swapped to the new structured display layer yet, so Sheets is still using the old lines.push narrative output.

If you want, I can spell out the exact minimal patch as “delete from this comment → to this comment, then paste this skeleton,” so you can make the change in one shot with almost zero risk.

Sources
[1] TennisLocks_v25_CLEANED-3.txt https://ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/web/direct-files/attachments/509945672/230c1ad2-79a6-4c59-9305-2e5b6dddf185/TennisLocks_v25_CLEANED-3.txt

Updated my script then send it as a downloadable txt link