You’re right to be mad: there are several places w...

You’re right to be mad: there are several places where the policy layer is asking for tennis probabilities that almost never occur, especially for 3‑set lanes. Below is a clean list of what to change or remove, why it’s a problem, and how it behaves across all tours. I’ll focus on hard / “impossible” gates, not on the physics (sim) layer.

All line refs and values are from your ..._ALL_PATCHES.txt file.[1]

---

1. Sets config: global thresholds (all tours)

1.1 SETSMARKETCFG read thresholds (2‑set & 3‑set)

Current config (global, all tours):[1]

js
var SETS_MARKET_CFG = {
  DISP_W_BO3: 0.16,
  RAW_W_BO3:  0.30,
  ADJ_W_BO3:  0.20,
  MKT_W_BO3:  0.16,
  HOLD_W_BO3: 0.18,
  SHIFTCAP_BO3: 0.14,
  WARNGAP_BO3: 0.08,
  STRONGEDGE_BO3: 0.12,
  MIDEDGE_BO3: 0.07,
  SWEEPSOFT_BO3: 0.56,
  SWEEPHARD_BO3: 0.62,

  READSTRONG2SETBO3: 0.59,
  READLEAN2SETBO3:   0.525,
  READSTRONG3SETBO3: 0.59,
  READLEAN3SETBO3:   0.525,
  ...
  TOUR: {
    ATP:    { maxP3: 0.52, ... },
    WTA:    { maxP3: 0.53, ... },
    CH:     { maxP3: 0.52, ... },
    ITF:    { maxP3: 0.49, ... },
    DEFAULT:{ maxP3: 0.46, ... }
  }
};

Why this is impossible / asymmetric:

• The max realistic p3 for a Bo3 match is roughly $0.52–0.55$ even for near‑coinflips or slightly favored dogs; your own maxP3 per tour encodes that.[1]
• You’re requiring p3Final ≥ 0.525–0.59 to even qualify as a LEAN/STRONG 3‑set read. That’s essentially “we only ever lean 3 sets when the decider is almost a coinflip by itself”, which never happens for 60–70% favorites across ATP/WTA/CH/ITF.[1]
• Because you use the same thresholds for 2‑set and 3‑set (READSTRONG2SETBO3 and READSTRONG3SETBO3 both 0.59), the policy expects the 3‑set lane to have the same win probability as the straight‑sets lane, which is structurally wrong: p2 + p3 = 1.[1]

Patch (keep symmetry but realistic per tennis):

You want 2‑sets thresholds in the high‑50s (favorite‑ish), and 3‑sets thresholds in the high‑30s / low‑40s (decider still meaningful but not dominant).

FIND:

js
READSTRONG2SETBO3: 0.59,
READLEAN2SETBO3:   0.525,
READSTRONG3SETBO3: 0.59,
READLEAN3SETBO3:   0.525,

REPLACE WITH:

js
READSTRONG2SETBO3: 0.60,   // strong 2-set lane
READLEAN2SETBO3:   0.54,   // lean 2-set lane

READSTRONG3SETBO3: 0.44,   // strong 3-set lane (very live decider)
READLEAN3SETBO3:   0.38,   // lean 3-set lane (solid but not majority)

Impact (all tours):

• ATP: maxP3 ≈ 0.52 → a 48–50% decider can now be “STRONG 3‑SET”, and 40–45% can be “LEAN 3‑SET”.
• WTA/CH/ITF: same shape, scaled by their own maxP3 (probability physics already encoded).
• This removes the “only pick 3 sets if p3 is absurdly high” behavior everywhere.[1]

---

2. Sets engine: per‑match gates that are too hard

Everything below is in _buildSetsMarketEngine_(ctx).[1]

2.1 supportThr3 / supportThr2 (broad‑support gate)

Current (inside setsPick decision block):[1]

js
var supportCount = 0;
var supportThr3 = _tourMaxP3 * 0.80;
var supportThr2 = 1 - supportThr3;
...
if (leadTwo) {
  if (Number.isFinite(p3Raw)         && (1 - p3Raw)         >= supportThr2) supportCount++;
  if (Number.isFinite(p3ModelDisplay)&& (1 - p3ModelDisplay)>= supportThr2) supportCount++;
  ...
} else {
  if (Number.isFinite(p3Raw)         && p3Raw         >= supportThr3) supportCount++;
  if (Number.isFinite(p3ModelDisplay)&& p3ModelDisplay>= supportThr3) supportCount++;
  ...
}
var broadSupport = (supportCount >= (leadGap < 0.08 ? 3 : 2));

For WTA: _tourMaxP3 = 0.53, so supportThr3 = 0.424.[1]

Why this is impossible:

• A 65% favorite will naturally have true p3 in the 0.35–0.40 region. Asking every source (raw/display/adj/mkt/hold) to be above 0.42 for a “live” 3‑set broad‑support tag is not tennis‑realistic for that favorite band on any tour.[1]
• This kills broadSupport for almost all realistic mismatch matches and forces 3‑set bets into being reserved for near‑coinflips.

Patch (soften but keep structure):

FIND:

js
var supportThr3 = _tourMaxP3 * 0.80;
var supportThr2 = 1 - supportThr3;

REPLACE WITH:

js
// 3-set support kicks in ~15pp below tour max, not 20pp.
var supportThr3 = _tourMaxP3 - 0.15;     // e.g. WTA: 0.53 - 0.15 = 0.38
var supportThr2 = 1 - supportThr3;       // e.g. WTA: 0.62

This makes it possible for p3 sources in the 0.37–0.40 band (typical for 62–67% favorites) to count as genuine 3‑set support across ATP/WTA/CH/ITF.[1]

---

2.2 Over‑lane thresholds (_ol*Thr) and decider votes (_dv*Thr)

Current:[1]

js
var _olRawThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.87;
var _olAdjThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.78;
var _olMktThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.84;
var _olHoldThr = _tourMaxP3 * 0.83;
...
var _dvRawThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.80;
var _dvAdjThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.76;
var _dvMktThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.82;
var _dvHoldThr = _tourMaxP3 * 0.81;

For WTA (maxP3=0.53) these are roughly:

• over‑lane raw: 0.46
• decider vote raw: 0.42

Why this is too hard / unrealistic:

• For most realistic WTA/ATP mismatches, p3 never gets near 0.46; that’s coinflip decider territory. Yet you require that to even register as a strong “over / 3‑set lane” or decider vote.[1]
• That means matches like Noskova–Gibson (p3 raw ~0.39, adj ~0.30, display ~0.35) always look like weak decider lanes in this logic, even though 35–40% is totally live 3‑set risk.

Patch: drop thresholds ~0.10 across the board

FIND:

js
var _olRawThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.87;
var _olAdjThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.78;
var _olMktThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.84;
var _olHoldThr = _tourMaxP3 * 0.83;

...

var _dvRawThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.80;
var _dvAdjThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.76;
var _dvMktThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.82;
var _dvHoldThr = _tourMaxP3 * 0.81;

REPLACE WITH:

js
// Over-lane support: fire at more realistic 3-set levels
var _olRawThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.70;  // ~0.36 WTA
var _olAdjThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.62;  // ~0.33
var _olMktThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.68;  // ~0.36
var _olHoldThr = _tourMaxP3 * 0.66;  // ~0.35

// Decider votes: same idea, lower bands
var _dvRawThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.66;  // ~0.35
var _dvAdjThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.58;  // ~0.31
var _dvMktThr  = _tourMaxP3 * 0.64;  // ~0.34
var _dvHoldThr = _tourMaxP3 * 0.63;  // ~0.33

This lets WTA/ATP/CH/ITF register “yes, decider is really live” once p3 is in the mid‑30s, which is the realistic band for many 60–70% favorites.[1]

---

2.3 dcMeanThr – decider consensus threshold

Current:[1]

js
var dcMeanThr = _tourMaxP3 * 0.82;
...
var deciderConsensusLive =
  (liveDeciderVotes >= 2 &&
   Number.isFinite(liveDeciderMean) &&
   liveDeciderMean >= dcMeanThr &&
   nearEvenSweep);

For WTA: dcMeanThr ≈ 0.43.

Why this is off:

• You’re saying: “only if the mean of raw/adj/mkt/hold is ≥ 43% will we pull p3Blend up toward it”. But for many mismatch matches, true p3 in the 35–40% band should get some consensus rescue if multiple sources agree (as in Noskova–Gibson).[1]

Patch: lower to ~0.35 across tours

FIND:

js
var dcMeanThr = _tourMaxP3 * 0.82;

REPLACE WITH:

js
// Consensus kicks in once blended decider is in the mid-30s
var dcMeanThr = _tourMaxP3 * 0.68;   // WTA ~0.36, ATP/CH similar band

---

2.4 Sweep‑pressure thresholds (_spHigh / _spMid)

Current:[1]

js
var _spHigh = (1 - _tourMaxP3) + 0.04;
var _spMid  = (1 - _tourMaxP3) + 0.13;

// Use RAW p3 for sweep-pressure check
var _p2ForSweepCheck = Number.isFinite(p3Raw)
  ? (1 - p3Raw)
  : (Number.isFinite(p3ModelDisplay) ? (1 - p3ModelDisplay) : NaN);

if (Number.isFinite(_p2ForSweepCheck) && _p2ForSweepCheck > _spHigh) {
  _sweepPressure = 2;
} else if (Number.isFinite(_p2ForSweepCheck) && _p2ForSweepCheck > _spMid) {
  _sweepPressure = 1;
}
...
if (!leadTwo && _sweepPressure >= 1) riskAdj += _sweepPressure * 0.015;
...
if (!leadTwo && _sweepPressure >= 2 && leadProb > 0.65) {
  out.setsPick = 'PASS';
}

For WTA: _tourMaxP3=0.53 → _spHigh=0.51, _spMid=0.60. So a 64% favorite with raw p3 = 0.39 → _p2ForSweepCheck = 0.61, which always triggers sweepPressure=1 and may hit 2 for slightly higher p2.[1]

Why this is over‑aggressive:

• Moderate favorites (60–70%) nearly always get sweep pressure flagged, even when raw p3 is legit in the 35–40% band. That drags the risk thresholds up for 3‑set bets and can outright veto them for slightly stronger favorites.

Patch: move sweep mid/high slightly right

FIND:

js
var _spHigh = (1 - _tourMaxP3) + 0.04;
var _spMid  = (1 - _tourMaxP3) + 0.13;

REPLACE WITH:

js
// Only treat sweep as "strong" when p2 is really dominant
var _spHigh = (1 - _tourMaxP3) + 0.08;
var _spMid  = (1 - _tourMaxP3) + 0.18;

That turns WTA sweep thresholds into ≈0.49 / 0.55 → ≈0.53 / 0.59. Now a 64–66% favorite doesn’t automatically get sweep pressure tags that punish 3‑set bets, but truly big favorites (70%+) still do.[1]

---

3. 3‑set totals authority (totalsDeciderAuthority)

This block isn’t the sets pick, but it feeds p3ForTotals, which then influences totals and the “p3 authority” line you’re seeing.[1]

3.1 Hard caps at 0.44 / 0.48 when lane3 is 0.95–0.98

From totalsDeciderAuthority(ctx):[1]

js
if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.98 && !broadSupport) {
  p3 = Math.min(p3, 0.44);
} else if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.95 && fragile) {
  p3 = Math.min(p3, 0.48);
}

Why this is “impossible” behavior:

• This says: “Even if all inputs say lane3 ~ 0.98, if we either (a) don’t have broad support or (b) are fragile, we forcibly cap p3 at 44–48%.”[1]
• That’s structurally inconsistent: lane3 ≈ 98% is already saying “if match gets to critical line, almost always 3 sets”. For tennis symmetry, you can shave but shouldn’t cap so low.

Patch options:

If you hate hard caps, best is to remove these lines entirely.

REMOVE this block completely:

js
if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.98 && !broadSupport) {
  p3 = Math.min(p3, 0.44);
} else if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.95 && fragile) {
  p3 = Math.min(p3, 0.48);
}

Or, if you want a softer version:

REPLACE WITH:

js
if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.98 && !broadSupport) {
  // just shave a bit toward anchor, don't hard cap
  p3 = 0.85 * p3 + 0.15 * anchor;
} else if (Number.isFinite(lane3) && lane3 >= 0.95 && fragile) {
  p3 = 0.90 * p3 + 0.10 * anchor;
}

This preserves symmetry and avoids “impossible low” p3 when lane3 is screaming 3‑set.[1]

---

4. Totals pick: not “impossible” but conservative

The totals pick engine (getTotalsPick and surrounding helpers) uses:

• Decider authority from totalsDeciderAuthority above.
• MC and Markov over % (e.g., MC Over 51.8%, Markov Over 56.9% in Noskova–Gibson).[1]
• Confidence thresholds per tour like:
  • WTA: high ≈ 0.60, mid ≈ 0.54; CH/ITF slightly lower, ATP slightly higher.[1]

These are not mathematically impossible; they’re just tuned to need real edges (mid‑50s or better) to show an Over/Under bet. If you want more “lean over 21.5” behavior:

• Reduce msHighThr/msMidThr by ~0.02–0.03 for each tour in the getTotalsConfLabel logic, so that 52–53% over can show as MID instead of PASS.[1]

But the truly “broken” symmetric behavior was in the sets engine gates we covered in sections 1–2, not the totals engine.

---

5. Summary of what you should change/remove

For a symmetric tennis script without impossible gates:

1. Change in SETS_MARKET_CFG (global, all tours):

   • Lower READSTRONG3SETBO3 / READLEAN3SETBO3 to ≈0.44/0.38.
   • Keep 2‑set thresholds around ≈0.60/0.54.[1]

2. In _buildSetsMarketEngine_:

   • Soften supportThr3 from _tourMaxP3*0.80 to _tourMaxP3 - 0.15.
   • Lower _ol*Thr and _dv*Thr multipliers by ~0.10 as proposed.
   • Lower dcMeanThr from _tourMaxP3*0.82 to _tourMaxP3*0.68.
   • Push _spHigh/_spMid right so sweep‐pressure doesn’t auto‑fire for every 60–70% favorite.[1]

3. In totalsDeciderAuthority:

   • Remove the hard caps that force p3 ≤ 0.44/0.48 when lane3 is 0.95–0.98, or turn them into mild shaves.[1]

After these changes, for any tour (ATP / WTA / CH / ITF):

• A p3 in the 35–40% range will be allowed to generate live “LEAN 3 SETS” reads and actual 3‑set bets when the prices are there, instead of being silently vetoed by impossible thresholds.[1]
• Heavy mismatches (75%+ favorites) will still be biased toward 2‑set sweeps by the sim layer and taper, but mid‑60s favorites won’t be locked out of decider lanes.

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